From the optimism of Panchsheel to the shadows of the 1962 war, the story of the Dragon and the Elephant is one of trust gained and lost, of cooperation in multilateral arenas, and of a shared yet often conflicting vision for Asia’s future

The relationship between India and China, two of the oldest civilisations in the world, has been a saga marked by both shared history and contentious moments. As the two nations now celebrate the Platinum Jubilee of their diplomatic ties, the journey of their complex relationship reveals a fascinating story of aspirations, trust, mistrust, and evolving geopolitical realities.

When India and China first established diplomatic ties in 1950, it was a moment of promise. India was the first non-socialist country to formally recognise the People’s Republic of China (PRC) following its establishment after a bloody civil war. India, under the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru, was focused on promoting a vision of peaceful coexistence and non-alignment during the Cold War. Nehru saw a future where the two Asian giants could cooperate to achieve regional peace and stability. This vision was encapsulated in the Panchsheel Agreement signed in 1954, based on five guiding principles: respect for territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

The relationship, however, was fraught with challenges from the start. China’s refusal to honour the McMahon Line, which demarcated the border between Tibet and India, and its invasion of Tibet in 1950, created early tensions. India, under Nehru’s leadership, viewed China’s expansionist ambitions with increasing suspicion.

The fact that India offered sanctuary to the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader, following an uprising in Tibet in 1959, was seen by China as a direct affront to its sovereignty. Beijing accused India of meddling in its internal affairs, especially over the Tibet issue, and the relationship began to sour.

Nehru, ever the optimist, sought to engage with China diplomatically. He believed that forging closer ties would help India address its security concerns and create a stable, peaceful environment in Asia.

However, the signing of the Panchsheel Agreement in 1954 did not resolve the underlying issues. By the early 1960s, border skirmishes between Indian and Chinese forces were becoming increasingly frequent.

The situation escalated in 1962, leading to the war that India would later describe as a crushing defeat. In just a matter of weeks, India lost over 3,000 soldiers and territory in Aksai Chin — an area China had already occupied by the time of the conflict. The defeat left deep scars in the Indian psyche and marked the lowest point in India–China relations. Over the years, both nations struggled to reconcile their differences. In the aftermath of the 1962 war, the relationship remained largely antagonistic for decades, with distrust growing over time. Even as the world around them shifted dramatically, with the Cold War coming to an end, the rise of globalisation, and China’s economic liberalisation — India and China found themselves caught in the crosscurrents of global politics. China’s increasing engagement with the West, especially the United States, was viewed with suspicion in India, especially as India cultivated deeper ties with the US in the 21st century. The early optimism of Panchsheel began to fade as both countries realised that their interests in Asia and on the global stage — were often at odds.In the 1980s, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 marked a thaw in bilateral relations. China’s economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping were yielding positive results, and India, too, was opening up its economy. Gandhi, in his visit to China, reaffirmed India’s stance on territorial integrity, especially over disputed areas like Aksai Chin.

Despite the thaw, however, the spectre of the 1962 war continued to hover over the relationship, and issues such as the status of Tibet, the Dalai Lama, and China’s growing influence in Asia remained unresolved. In the years that followed, both countries began to recognise the importance of cooperating in global forums. The rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in the 2000s highlighted the growing significance of emerging economies on the global stage. Yet, even as China and India engaged in multilateral settings like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), their bilateral ties were continually tested.

For China, the SCO provided a platform to assert its leadership in Central Asia and, by extension, its influence over the Global South. For India, the organisation offered a way to engage with its neighbour while simultaneously countering China’s growing assertiveness in the region. The SCO, however, could never completely shield the two nations from the larger geopolitical currents that often drove them apart.

As China’s economic power and military capabilities grew, India’s strategic positioning within the global order became more important. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presented both opportunities and challenges for India. While China promised infrastructure investment across the developing world, including in South Asia, India expressed concerns over the so-called “debt-trap diplomacy” that came with these investments.

India feared that Chinese loans to smaller countries could lead to unsustainable debt burdens, eventually giving China undue political leverage. India’s concerns were particularly acute in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and other neighbouring countries, where Chinese investments were seen as part of a broader strategic move to establish Chinese dominance in South Asia.

The issue of the Dalai Lama continues to be a thorn in the side of Sino–Indian relations. For India, offering sanctuary to the Dalai Lama has been a symbol of its support for the Tibetan cause. For China, however, the Dalai Lama remains a figure of contention — seen as a challenge to its sovereignty over Tibet.

In recent years, as India has taken a stronger stance on human rights and has deepened its strategic ties with the West, China has become increasingly critical of India’s stance on Tibet and other issues.

India’s rising ties with the US have further complicated its relationship with China. The two countries’ growing strategic partnership — especially in the context of the Indo–Pacific — has led to increasing tensions between Beijing and New Delhi. China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, its Belt and Road Initiative, and its growing military presence have placed India in a difficult position.

Despite attempts at dialogue, there is an undeniable tension between India’s desire for a more secure and independent global role and China’s pursuit of regional and global dominance.

In the past two decades, both India and China have had to grapple with the geopolitical realities of an interconnected world. India’s participation in BRICS and the SCO, its deepening ties with the US, and its increasingly assertive stance in regional and global politics have put it at odds with China’s ambitions. Meanwhile, China’s global footprint has only expanded, further complicating bilateral ties.

The Dragon and the Elephant, once bound by common aspirations of peace and prosperity, now find themselves facing a more competitive and uncertain future. As the two countries celebrate the Platinum Jubilee of their diplomatic ties, the relationship between India and China remains as complex as ever.

While cooperation in multilateral forums like BRICS and SCO continues, unresolved issues,  mincluding border disputes, the Tibet question, and the growing competition for global influence — continue to challenge the bilateral relationship.

The journey of the Dragon and the Elephant is far from over, and it remains to be seen whether these two great nations can navigate their differences and work toward a future of peaceful coexistence or if history will continue to repeat itself.

Yet, the geopolitical realities of the 21st century present an opportunity for these two giants, often described as the “Dragon” and the “Elephant”, to transform their cooperation into a force capable of reshaping global power dynamics.

As emerging economic powers, India and China have the potential to create a partnership that could challenge existing global structures and bring about a new era of economic collaboration, technological innovation, and global influence.

The comparison to a “sleeping giant” is fitting in this context: just as China’s rise was once predicted to “shake the world”, the cooperation between India and China holds the potential to disrupt and transform the global order.

If both nations can overcome their historical grievances and align their interests, their combined influence in global forums such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) could lead to an era where their collective strength could rival any other power bloc.

The future of their relationship, while uncertain, offers a tantalising possibility: if the Dragon and the Elephant truly cooperate, they could shake the world in ways that extend far beyond their regional borders — creating a new, more balanced world order.

(The writer is a professor at the Centre for South Asian Studies, School of International Studies and Social Sciences, Pondicherry Central University; Views are personal)