While Trump’s focus on countering China could strengthen Indo-US strategic ties, his erratic temperament and divisive policies present challenges
In India, there is a mix of excitement, tentativeness, and even concern, with the second coming of Donald Trump as the President of the United States. While Trump’s excitable temperament is well known, he ought to be served better with hindsight of experience. But he may not. While India will remain resolutely relevant and critical in his foreign policy calculus, the handling of certain issues could test Indian reaction and patience. His inevitable fixation with managing China will necessitate nurturing the strategic ‘pivot’ of India as a counterbalance, Delhi’s deep-rooted equations with countries like Russia or Iran, could earn his ire and vitriol.
A lot will depend on ‘Team Trump’ who will aid and assist Trump as he attempts the shape his poll promises of MAGA i.e., Make America Great Again! However, unlike the first term when he did inherit and heed reputation and professionalism as the criteria for key jobs in the Trump administration (though subsequently, he developed a penchant for ‘revolving door’ ousters of many), this time the criteria only seem to be ‘loyalty’ to Trump, personally.
There is a disconcerting and contradictory logic to many recent appointments that begs the question if it indeed will be ‘business as usual’ – something Delhi had got used to, irrespective of the dispensation in Washington DC. Sadly, that vital presence of ‘adults in the room’ from the first Trump administration who were able to navigate and manage Trump out of his outlandish and fickle ideas, will not be present anymore. If anything, in a room filled with ‘loyalists’ (read, obsequious staff), chances that someone will play the ‘adult in the room’ anymore, will be starkly lesser than before, as there could be competitive grovelling to valourise Trump’s ideas, whatever be the portent.How will Trump’s purported ‘non-interventionist’ preferences sit with Sino-wary countries like India, Japan or Australia (the other three from QUAD framework) that are in the direct line of Chinese belligerence and expansionism?
Will Trump’s ‘non-interventionist’ instinct embolden Beijing to finally bite the bullet on Taiwan and storm the same, knowing that beyond mouthing platitudes, Washington DC will not intervene militarily? The picture emerging out of a beleaguered (and potentially isolated) Ukraine does not seem reassuring from a security angle, as the possibility of America pushing its ‘allies’ under the bus, seems very plausible. Even disconcerting memories of the Summer of 2020 when the Chinese aggression pushed through Indian frontiers, with a seemingly disinterested Trump offering to ‘negotiate a deal’ instead of adopting a more assertive stance, are still raw.
Indeed, the Americans had expedited the exports of weaponry to Delhi, but all that made imminent commercial sense to the die-hard businessman in Trump. Just how ramrod and unfailing will the Trump support be in meeting any such exigency in the future, is worth considering. Even in bilateral relations, there is a fresh bunch of unrestrained radicals who make up the Trump redux cabinet.
They may or may not play by the traditional rulebook of diplomacy and could make comments that are unpalatable to Indian sensibilities. Delhi will be under immense pressure to moderate the bilateral engagement and conversations, as the Indian democracy has its dynamics and imagined perceptions that will disallow unruly comments, even if they were to come from the USA.
Adding to the complexity is the contradiction that many amongst this new Trump cabinet are trigger-happy interventionists (e.g., Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Elise Stefanik the Ambassador to UN etc.,) a la neoconservatives whom Trump rubbish repeatedly – how this contradiction will manifest will be interesting. Even on non-security issues like immigration, trade terms, or commitment towards the environmental issues, could be a very rocky ride for Delhi.
India has made ambitious commitments towards the global environmental cause, whereas Trump’s rhetoric has cockily been, “We’re going to drill, baby, drill," and confirmed that, “I will terminate the green new scam”. While India isn’t on top of its target list on immigrant issues, it will only be a matter of time before the bogey “stealing your jobs” impacts India. Trump will be a mega populist who will dance to the ‘redneck’ wish list and this will impact relations with the world’s largest democracy, a lot more gravely than other countries.
Trump has demonstrated a terrifying ability to shed responsibilities towards his allies (sovereign, coalition, and even personal) and also his moral responsibility by readily abandoning its vital geostrategic stakes (remember Afghanistan, and now Syria) with a thoughtless shrug of the shoulder and “not my problem” approach. This tests the will to invest in a transactional relationship like the one offered by Trump, as no support can be construed for sure.
Owing to his polarising politics of identity and blind support for the likes of Benjamin Netanyahu, the narrative emanating from the White House could jeopardise and harm the societal fabric of a diverse country like India that needs to maintain an inclusive outlook. America itself is in for a tumultuous time with the President-designate having promised to close the border with Mexico and launch the largest deportation exercise in US history within hours (not days) of taking over. While Donald Trump’s rhetoric is usually more bark than bite, India may find it difficult to accommodate his provocative talk and temperament, beyond a point.
(The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry. The views are personal)
