The Aam Aadmi Party’s collapse in Delhi and the cracks within the INDIA bloc have emboldened the BJP to win Bengal and Bihar

Buoyed by its sweeping success in Delhi, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has now turned its focus towards the crucial state elections in West Bengal in 2026, where it aims to dethrone Mamata Banerjee. What once seemed like an uphill battle is now a tangible possibility for the party. Emboldened by the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) debacle in Delhi, BJP leaders are proclaiming, “Delhi ki jeet hamari ho gayi, ab 2026 main Bengal ki baari hai” (We have won Delhi; now it’s Bengal’s turn in 2026).

Bihar, too, is set to witness an intense electoral showdown. With recent victories boosting the party’s confidence, BJP and its allies plan to enter the battle with renewed aggression to retain power. The fragmented INDIA alliance, which was evident in Haryana and Delhi, provides the BJP with an additional advantage. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has maintained a strong presence in West Bengal for decades, is expected to play a pivotal role in BJP’s bid to oust Mamata in the upcoming assembly elections.

Modi’s Appeal: BJP’s Trump CardPrime Minister Narendra Modi remains the BJP’s strongest electoral force. His leadership, credibility, and mass appeal, especially among the middle and lower-income groups, were decisive in Delhi’s outcome. Welfare schemes like free ration under the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana directly strengthened BJP’s voter base. Modi’s ability to project governance stability ensured that BJP’s campaign resonated powerfully across the capital.

Modi’s credibility as a vote magnet and his guarantee to implement manifesto promises worked like magic for the BJP, which continues to heavily rely on him even for state elections. In his characteristic style, Modi remarked, “Congress has achieved a double hat-trick of defeats with zero seats,” predicting its further decline. Meanwhile, he celebrated BJP’s string of victories in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, reinforcing his status as the party’s ultimate campaigner.

Decoding JBP’s Triumph in Delhi: The Modi FactorSeveral key factors contributed to BJP’s victory in Delhi, with Modi playing a central role. His strong stance on national security, Hindutva, and governance stability shaped the electoral landscape, particularly among urban and middle-class voters.

Modi’s National Security & Hindutva Image

As the national capital, Delhi is heavily influenced by nationalistic narratives. Modi’s firm policies on Pakistan, terrorism, and Hindutva solidified BJP’s core voter base. By framing the election as Modi vs. Kejriwal rather than a contest over local governance, BJP ensured that Modi’s persona resonated strongly with voters.

PM’s Welfare Schemes vs. AAP’s Freebies

While AAP is known for its populist freebies, the Modi government strategically countered this with large-scale welfare initiatives such as PM Awas Yojana (housing for the poor), Ujjwala Yojana (free LPG connections), and Ayushman Bharat (health insurance). By shifting the narrative from Kejriwal’s localized welfare model to Modi’s broader national schemes, the BJP successfully attracted lower-income and migrant voters.

A masterstroke was Modi’s assurance that AAP’s welfare schemes would not be discontinued but rather enhanced, promising to elevate Delhi into a world-class city. This neutralized Kejriwal’s traditional advantage and reassured voters. BJP also aggressively targeted AAP over corruption allegations, particularly the liquor scam, altering voter perception. Modi’s leadership was positioned as a guarantee of cleaner governance, contrasting sharply with AAP’s tainted image.<

Impact of BJP’s Victories in Other States:  BJP’s recent wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, and other key states created a momentum effect, reinforcing voter confidence in Delhi. Haryana’s proximity made its results particularly influential, given the shared demographics.

The party’s national winning streak also boosted cadre morale, creating a perception of electoral invincibility, which further weakened AAP’s positioning as an alternative force.

Why AAP Lost:

AAP’s defeat was not solely due to BJP’s strategic campaign but also its political miscalculations. Kejriwal underestimated Congress’s relevance, assuming it was a non-factor. This resulted in AAP’s defeat in 14 assembly segments where the victory margin was lower than the votes secured by Congress candidates.

AAP had previously employed a similar strategy in Haryana, splitting Congress’s votes and aiding BJP’s gains. However, this tactic backfired in Delhi, as the ignored Congress vote share ended up damaging AAP more than BJP. One of the biggest takeaways from AAP’s crushing defeat is the blow to Arvind Kejriwal’s national ambitions.

(The writer is a senior political analyst and strategic affairs columnist; views are personal)