The 4.0 magnitude earthquake that shook Delhi-NCR recently underscores Delhi’s alarming seismic risks, given its location on active fault lines
In the early morning of February 17, 2025, the residents of Delhi-NCR awakened by a sudden unexpected jolt awakening due to a tremor. A 4.0-magnitude earthquake struck the region, with its epicentre located near Dhaula Kuan, Delhi, sending shockwaves throughout the city along with neighbouring NCR. Although the quake was relatively minor, its impact felt stronger because it originated from a shallow depth and was intensified by widespread fear of bigger earthquakes. People hurriedly evacuated their homes, buildings swayed and social media was abuzz with concern.
This event served as yet another reminder that Delhi remains dangerously vulnerable to seismic shock vulnerability to seismic activity. Delhi hazardously sits on several active fault lines, including the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge and the Mahendragarh-Dehradun fault. The city falls in Seismic Zone IV and is recognised as being at high risk for earthquakes. Its closeness to the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active areas globally, further increases its risk. According to geoscientists, the Indian plate is continually pushing beneath the Eurasian plate at a rate of about 47 mm per year, generating significant underground stress.
When this stress is released, it results in earthquakes—ranging from minor to devastating. History has shown us the potential destruction of earthquakes. The 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, which registered 7.7 on the Richter scale, resulted in over 20,000 fatalities and left entire towns in rubble. If a similar earthquake event were to strike Delhi-NCR, the aftermath could be even more disastrous. Simulations from global seismic studies, including the USGS PAGER system and the GEM Global Seismic Risk Map, indicate that a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Delhi could result in between 150,000 to 250,000 deaths. The combination of a dense population, ageing infrastructure, and unplanned urbanisation makes the capital particularly vulnerable to widespread devastation. One major concern facing the city is the quality of construction.
Many buildings, especially in older areas and unauthorised settlements, are not designed to endure strong earthquakes. Although there are strict regulations set by the National Building Code and the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), enforcement often remains weak. High-rise buildings and even some government facilities in the region frequently lack the necessary retrofitting to enhance their earthquake resistance. With over 30 million people living in Delhi-NCR, the scale of destruction from a significant earthquake could be unimaginable.So, what steps can be taken?
Demolishing all unsafe buildings and reconstructing them with seismic-resistant technology is neither practical nor economically viable. However, sincere efforts can be made to raise awareness about the earthquake risk and ensure people are prepared for a potential major earthquake in Delhi.
First and foremost, raising awareness and ensuring preparedness should be a top priority. Every household needs to have a well-defined earthquake survival plan. Schools and workplaces should regularly conduct earthquake drills to prepare individuals for how to react during tremors. Simple actions, like securing heavy furniture, identifying safe areas in homes, and having emergency kits ready, can greatly improve safety. The government also needs to take necessary actions in this regard.
A comprehensive structural audit of buildings, particularly those constructed before modern seismic standards were established, is urgently required. Buildings that fail to meet safety criteria should be reinforced and retrofitted. It is essential to enforce the use of earthquake-resistant construction methods in new projects. Retrofitting at-risk buildings may be expensive, but it is a crucial investment for protecting lives.
Additionally, public infrastructure needs to be reassessed. Bridges, flyovers, and metro stations need to be evaluated for their ability to withstand seismic activity. Several cities like Tokyo and San Francisco have successfully implemented advanced technology to make buildings more earthquake-proof. Delhi should look to these global examples to reduce the risk of widespread casualties.
A city that is well-prepared for disasters always invests in the education and awareness of its residents. Creating an Earthquake Awareness Museum in Delhi, akin to the one in Bhuj, Gujarat, could make a significant impact on people’s awareness, not only from Delhi NCR but from all over the country.
This museum could highlight Delhi’s seismic history, delve into the science behind earthquakes, and inform the public about safety protocols. Additionally, a dedicated “Earthquake Clinic” within the museum could provide free consultations with engineers on how to house earthquake resistance at a reasonable price.Moreover, implementing an efficient early warning system could significantly minimise the risk of casualties. For instance, Japan’s earthquake early warning system alerts people just seconds before a quake, allowing people to take cover. Establishing a similar system in Delhi should be a national priority.
Despite scientific advancements, earthquakes remain unpredictable. However, we can control the level of preparedness when a disaster strikes. The recent tremor in Delhi is more than just a fleeting event- it serves as a warning. Ignoring it could be disastrous. The time to take action is now before nature delves a lesson that is too harsh to endure.
(The writer is former executive director of National Institute of Disaster Management, Govt. of India; views are personal)
