In a recurring political phenomenon, Punjab has once again swam against the national tide in the recent Lok Sabha elections. This marks the continuation of a trend observed in five out of the previous six general elections, where the state opted for the party that ultimately found itself on the Opposition benches in the Lok Sabha.
Except for the 2009 elections, Punjab has consistently favoured the party or alliance destined for the Opposition. This enduring pattern began in 1999 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, secured the government with 182 seats nationally. Contrarily, in Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP coalition managed only three seats, a stark drop from their 11-seat victory in 1998, despite having a SAD-BJP State Government led by Parkash Singh Badal. The Congress party’s fortunes reversed dramatically, increasing its tally from zero in 1998 to eight seats in 1999.
In the 2004 general elections, the BJP-led NDA was ousted, making way for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) under Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. Again, Punjab’s results diverged from the national outcome, awarding only two seats to the Congress, while SAD and BJP garnered eight and three seats respectively, during a period when the state was governed by the Congress under Capt Amarinder Singh.
The 2009 Lok Sabha elections were an exception. The Congress-led UPA retained power nationally with 206 seats, while Punjab, governed by the SAD under Parkash Singh Badal, showed a rare alignment with the national sentiment. Congress won eight seats, buoyed by the appeal of Dr Manmohan Singh as a Sikh Prime Ministerial candidate, with SAD and BJP securing four and one seat respectively.
In the 2014 elections, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, achieved a historic win with 282 seats, while the Congress saw its worst performance with just 44 seats. However, in Punjab, the electorate provided a significant boost to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), awarding them four seats — Sangrur, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib, and Patiala, even as the nascent party drew blank across the country. The SAD-BJP alliance, despite having formed the State Government in 2012, failed to replicate the national trend in Punjab.
The 2019 elections saw a repeat of this dichotomy. Riding on the Modi wave, the BJP clinched 303 seats nationwide, securing a second term for Narendra Modi. However, Punjab handed eight seats to the Congress, with AAP’s Bhagwant Mann being its sole winner, and two seats each going to SAD and BJP, who contested in coalition.
In the recently-concluded elections, the BJP-led NDA has again secured a majority with 291 seats, positioning Narendra Modi for a third consecutive term as the Prime Minister, set to take the oath on June 8. Yet, Punjab, now under AAP rule, favoured Congress, which won seven seats. The ruling AAP could secure only three seats, while SAD won one, and the BJP failed to win any.
This persistent deviation underscored Punjab’s distinct political character, where voters frequently diverge from the national trend, favouring opposition parties over the ruling national coalition. It underscored the state's independent electoral mindset and its tendency to prioritize regional political dynamics over broader national waves.
PUNJAB FACES BYELECTIONS ON FIVE ASSEMBLY SEATS
With the election of four sitting legislators, including one Cabinet Minister, Punjab is now staring at byelections on four assembly constituencies of Barnala, Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, and Chabbewal. Other than that one constituency of Jalandhar (West) is vacant as AAP MLA Sheetal Angural had resigned and joined BJP.
Sitting MLAs from the four constituencies — Cabinet Minister Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer from Barnala, Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring from Gidderbaha, former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa from Dera Baba Nanak, and two-time Congress MLA Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal from Chabbewal — have made it to the Parliament emerging victorious in the Lok Sabha polls, results of which were announced on Tuesday.
Apart from them, another AAP MLA Sheetal Angural, from Jalandhar (West), had also resigned from Vidhan Sabha and AAP to join Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). His resignation has recently been accepted by the Speaker, making the seat vacant. The byelections would have to be organised within six months of vacating their constituency.
In all, a dozen of sitting MLAs, including five Cabinet Ministers, were in fray for the Lok Sabha polls — including Dr Balbir Singh, Gurmeet Singh Khuddian, Laljit Singh Bhullar, Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal, and Meet Hayer — the only Minister to win the election.
Out of these 12, eight were from the ruling AAP, while four were from Congress, including one who defected to AAP. While AAP’s only one MLA could win the seat—that is Meet Hayer, Congress’ three MLAs, including the one imported by AAP, won the polls.
Apart from Warring and Randhawa, Dr Chabbewal, the two-time Congress MLA, also won the election. Notably, Dr Chabbewal had resigned from the Assembly and the party, to join AAO ahead of polls. He was fielded by AAP from Hoshiarpur. His resignation has, however, not been accepted yet.
AAP’s three sitting MLAs — Ashok Parashar Pappi, Amansher Singh Sherry Kalsi, and Jagdeep Singh Kaka Brar—lost the elections; while Congress’ Sukhpal Singh Khaira too tasted defeat.
AAP has 92 members in Vidhan Sabha, the Congress has 18, Akalis have three, BSP has one, BJP has two and one is an Independent. Now, if those elected MPs resign and considering Angural’s resignation, the new strength would be AAP with 90 seats, and Congress 15, with the rest remaining the same.
Hayer, having won from Sangrur, will now lose his ministry in Punjab, as he will have to resign both as Minister and MLA, and take oath as Lok Sabha member. While four others, who lost the election, have been left red faced.
