As Punjab prepares for the by-elections to four key Assembly constituencies — Dera Baba Nanak, Chabbewal (SC), Gidderbaha, and Barnala — all the major political parties have launched intense campaigns to secure victories in these hotly-contested seats.

Scheduled for November 13, these by-elections hold immense significance for all major players — Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) — as they vie for influence and dominance in the state’s political landscape. Each party is adopting unique strategies, highlighting its strengths while trying to undermine its rivals, especially at a time when the Khalistani sympathizers have also announced to enter the electoral ring.

Congress: Revitalizing its Stronghold

The Congress, which has historically held three of the four seats, is approaching the by-elections with a sense of urgency, aiming to regain its lost ground. The party has called a meeting in Chandigarh on Friday, bringing key leaders together, including Congress in-charge Devendra Yadav and state unit president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, to finalize candidates and chart their course of action. Having lost some of its MLAs to the Lok Sabha, the Congress faces the challenge of reasserting its presence in Punjab’s legislative assembly.

The upcoming meeting is expected to focus on gathering feedback from the local constituencies, especially on potential candidates, and strategizing to counter the growing influence of AAP and BJP. The Congress high command is expected to announce the final list of candidates by October 21, ensuring ample time for campaigning.

Warring, who previously represented Gidderbaha, has his eyes on ensuring the party’s retention of this crucial seat hoping to secure party ticket for his wife Amrita. Meanwhile, Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, a former deputy chief minister and Dera Baba Nanak MLA, will be crucial in the Congress’ efforts to win back that constituency and is vying for party ticket for his wife.

BJP: Expanding its Influence, sans state party chief

For the BJP, the by-elections present an opportunity to expand its political base in Punjab, where it has traditionally struggled against the dominance of regional parties like the Congress and SAD. The saffron party has become particularly aggressive, appointing in-charges for each seat and conducting a series of meetings to fine-tune its strategies.

However, uncertainty surrounding Sunil Jakhar’s role within Punjab’s BJP unit has raised concerns about the party's election prospects. Despite consistent denials from BJP leadership regarding Jakhar's rumoured resignation from his top post, his prolonged silence on the matter suggested underlying tensions within the state party. This ambiguity has sparked speculation about internal divisions, potentially weakening the BJP's campaign efforts ahead of the crucial bypolls. As Jakhar remains one of the party’s most influential figures in Punjab, his lack of clear communication could prove to be a stumbling block for the BJP in rallying support and maintaining unity.

Senior BJP leaders Avinash Rai Khanna and Manpreet Singh Badal have already started campaigning in Gidderbaha and Barnala, reflecting the seriousness with which the party views these elections. BJP’s in-charge for Gidderbaha segment, Avinash Rai Khanna, has been holding meetings with local party leaders, stating that the recent election results in Haryana have bolstered the morale of BJP workers in neighbouring Punjab.

While the BJP did not win any seats in Punjab during the last Lok Sabha elections, it managed to secure a higher vote share than SAD, and the party is keen to build on this momentum.

Manpreet Singh Badal, a five-time legislator and former Finance Minister of Punjab, is widely seen as the BJP’s likely candidate for Gidderbaha. Having represented the constituency in the past as a SAD candidate, Manpreet’s deep connections to the region and his appeal among voters could prove to be significant assets for the BJP. Despite internal challenges, including a vigilance probe initiated by the AAP Government, Manpreet has become active in Gidderbaha, meeting supporters and reviving his grassroots network. His association with the Badal family adds a layer of political complexity, as he seeks to leverage both his family ties and his BJP affiliation to reclaim his influence in the region.

AAP: Consolidating Power

As the ruling party in Punjab, AAP faces the highest stakes in these by-elections. The party is looking to maintain its stronghold while countering the Congress’ attempts to reclaim the lost seats. Having won the Barnala seat in the previous Assembly elections, AAP has initiated a slew of developmental projects worth crores of rupees in the four constituencies, positioning these as tangible evidence of the government’s achievements.

However, AAP’s momentum has been somewhat slowed by the Panchayat elections, which caused temporary disruptions in the party’s election campaign. Nonetheless, the party leadership remains confident in its prospects. With the former Barnala MLA Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer having moved to the Lok Sabha, AAP must now field a candidate capable of retaining this crucial seat. The party is banking on its ability to deliver visible results in governance, as well as leveraging its campaign on transparency, anti-corruption measures, and social welfare programs.

At the same time, AAP is aware of the growing threat posed by the BJP and Congress in these by-elections. As the Election Commission has announced the implementation of the model code of conduct, AAP’s leadership is expected to intensify its campaign in the coming weeks.

SAD: Seeking Revival

SAD, which once held Gidderbaha for decades, is looking to regain its footing in Punjab’s political landscape. Despite having lost considerable ground over the years, SAD’s leadership remains optimistic about its chances in these by-elections. Party leaders have been actively touring the four constituencies to gauge the political pulse and assess potential candidates.

Jagmeet Singh Brar, a former Congress leader who joined SAD but was later expelled, has announced his intent to contest from Gidderbaha. Brar has a long history of contesting elections against the Badal family and has consistently garnered significant votes. His presence in the by-elections adds an intriguing dynamic to the race, particularly as he is now associated with the newly-formed Punjab United Regional Forum. Brar’s decision to enter the race could split the traditional SAD vote base, posing a challenge to both SAD and BJP.

With by-elections set to take place in less than a month, Punjab’s political parties are leaving no stone unturned in their efforts to secure these four critical seats. While Congress seeks to rebuild, BJP aims to expand, AAP strives to retain its hold, and SAD works towards regaining lost ground. The stakes are high, and the political drama is just beginning to unfold.