This year monsoon may hit Kerala a day before the normal date. According to the Meteorological Department, the monsoon will reach Kerala on May 31. However, the normal date of arrival of monsoon in Kerala is June 1.
The Meteorological Department issued the estimation late on Wednesday night. There is a possibility of 4 days more or less in the announced date. That means monsoon can arrive anytime between May 28 to June 3.
Monsoon may enter Madhya Pradesh around June 20. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the arrival of monsoon in Kerala on May 31. Also, it can hit in Madhya Pradesh between June 16 and 21. Last time there was entry from the eastern part i.e., Anuppur, Mandla, Balaghat, Seoni. This time the same is expected. There are chances of it reaching Bhopal during this time. It is likely to enter Madhya Pradesh two days before this.
This time there are also indications of good rains in the state. It has been predicted that there will be 104 to 106 percent rainfall in the state for four months from May to June to September. This is 4 to 6 percent more than normal. Earlier, in the year 2023, the state had received 100% rainfall i.e. more than an average of 37 inches. More water than normal had fallen in half of MP including Indore and Ujjain. Another weather report will come in the last week of May. In which the picture of rain will become clear.
The normal date of entry of monsoon in Madhya Pradesh is June 15. Monsoon had entered the state on June 24 in 2023. Earlier, in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 i.e. for 3 consecutive years, monsoon had reached Madhya Pradesh late.
According to the report, 98 to 99 percent rainfall is expected to be below normal in 4 divisions of Eastern Madhya Pradesh – Sagar, Rewa, Jabalpur and Shahdol. At the same time, 101 to 102 percent or more rainfall is forecast in 6 divisions of Western Madhya Pradesh – Bhopal, Narmadapuram, Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior and Chambal. Met said that the current conditions regarding the monsoon are much better.
According to the Meteorological Department, at present moderate conditions of El Nino prevail over the equatorial Pacific region. Other climate model forecasts along with the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to weaken further and transition to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the early part of the monsoon. After this, La Nina conditions are likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon.
Hail-rain alert has been issued in many districts of Madhya Pradesh in the next few hours. The Meteorological Department has predicted the possibility of lightning and winds blowing at a speed of 70 kilometers per hour. The weather is expected to change in more than 12 districts including Indore, Ujjain and Ratlam.
According to the Meteorological Department, lightning may occur in Betul, South Jabalpur, Seoni, Chhindwara, Pandhurna and Mandla. The weather may also change in Burhanpur, Narmadapuram's Pachmarhi, Raisen, Indore, Dhar, Barwani, South Khargone, Ujjain, Ratlam, Jhabua, South Narsinghpur, Balaghat and Dindori districts.
Earlier, it rained in Ratlam on Wednesday.
