With the Jalandhar West assembly bypoll slated for July 10, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann finds himself in a high-stakes battle to secure a crucial electoral mandate. Amidst intense political scrutiny, Mann has shifted his entire family to rented accommodation in the poll-bound constituency, where they are actively engaging in a spirited campaign. The crucial election has become a matter of personal and political prestige for the Chief Minister, who is leaving no stone unturned to secure a victory.
 
While Mann has been going all out — conducting roadshows, holding public meetings, nukkad sabhas, and what not; his wife Dr Gurpreet Kaur is also active in the campaign, conducting public meetings, public grievances hearing sessions from their rented residence, besides engaging in door-to-door outreach.
 
Despite the fact that the outcome of the upcoming bypoll will not alter the composition of the current AAP Government in Punjab, which already commands 90 seats in the 117-member House, the Chief Minister’s singular focus on this election and his dedicated efforts to secure this assembly seat are driven by specific considerations.
 
Political experts suggest that the primary reason is the AAP’s disappointing performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections. If AAP loses this seat, it could be perceived as a sign that public support for the State Government, especially Mann’s popularity, is waning. Mann is determined to avoid this narrative, aiming to demonstrate that despite the setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, his government retains the people’s trust.
 
In the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections, Mann’s ambitious ‘13-0’ slogan — aiming to win all 13 parliamentary seats in Punjab — fell flat, with AAP securing only three seats. While former Minister Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer won the Sangrur seat convincingly, victories in Anandpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur were narrow. Meanwhile, Congress captured seven seats, the Akali Dal won one, and independents claimed two seats.
 
The analysis of the assembly-wise results of the Lok Sabha elections was equally concerning. When AAP formed the government in 2022, it won 92 out of 117 seats. However, just two years later, AAP could only gain an edge in 33 assembly segments during the Lok Sabha elections, losing ground in 59 segments, coupled with a declining vote share.
 
AAP’s vote share in the 2022 assembly elections was an impressive 42 percent. This figure plummeted to 26 percent in the recent Lok Sabha elections — registering a 16 percent decline.
 
Moreover, AAP finished third in the Jalandhar West constituency as per the segment-wise result of the Lok Sabha elections, with Congress receiving 44,394 votes despite party candidate winning the seat. On the other hand, BJP bagged the highest 42,827 votes. AAP trailed significantly, garnering only 15,629 votes — 27,765 votes behind Congress, which itself was at second place.
 
The stakes have escalated due to the bypolls triggered by AAP MLA Sheetal Angural’s defection to the BJP. Now standing as the saffron party's candidate, Angural is aggressively targeting Mann and his family with accusations and attacks.
 
The outcome of the Jalandhar West bypoll will have significant ramifications for Mann. A win would be a crucial morale booster, affirming that despite the Lok Sabha losses, his government continues to enjoy public support. Conversely, a defeat would provide ammunition to his critics, who would likely highlight issues such as the state’s struggles with drug problems and law and order. It would also cast doubt on Mann's leadership and the AAP's governance, suggesting that public disenchantment with the government has set in within just two and a half years.
 
Even though AAP secured a historic win in 2022 state assembly polls by bagging 92 out of 117 seats, its performance was uneven across various regions. While AAP dominated in Malwa and Majha, it struggled in Doaba, which includes Jalandhar. In 2022 polls, AAP won four out of nine seats in Jalandhar district, but the Jalandhar parliamentary seat, held by Congress in 2019, switched to AAP in a May 2023 bye-election. Yet, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw Congress reclaiming the seat, with AAP finishing third.
 
Given this backdrop, winning the Jalandhar West bypoll has become a matter of prestige for Mann and AAP.