As the dust settles on the polling booths after the voting for its 13 Lok Sabha seats on June 1, Punjab finds itself on the cusp of potential political upheaval. With exit polls now illuminating the path ahead, Punjab awaits with bated breath for the final verdict, slated to be unveiled on June 4.
The electoral landscape of Punjab has always been dynamic, often defying conventional expectations. This time around, the exit polls have added an extra layer of intrigue, painting a picture that suggested a departure from the status quo. The projections hinted at a political landscape characterized by shifting alliances, resurgent forces, and entrenched incumbents fighting to retain their grip on power.
At the forefront of this electoral saga is the Congress, the grand old party that has long been a dominant force in Punjab’s political arena. According to the exit polls, Congress is poised to emerge as a major player, projected to secure between six to eight seats. This resurgence comes on the heels of a tumultuous period for the party, marked by internal rifts and electoral setbacks. If the predictions hold true, it would signify a significant rebound for Congress, reaffirming its status as a formidable political entity in the state.
However, the Congress’ resurgence is not without its challenges. The exit polls indicated that the party’s urban Hindu vote base may have shifted towards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), posing a potential threat to its electoral prospects. Moreover, lingering allegations of corruption during its previous rule in 2017-22, which the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been quick to exploit, continue to haunt the Congress. That was not all! Shiromani Akali Dal’s masterstroke to rake up the issues of anti-Sikh riots besides reminding the electors that polling day, June 1, coincides with Operation Bluestar’s 40th anniversary may have, at least to some extent, impacted the Congress.
Speaking of the AAP, the exit polls painted a nuanced picture of the party’s electoral prospects in Punjab. After storming to power in the 2022 Assembly elections with a landslide victory, AAP now finds itself in a closely-contested battle for supremacy in the Lok Sabha polls. The projections suggest that AAP might secure between two to four seats, a respectable showing but perhaps falling short of the party’s lofty ambitions of 13-0. For Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who has emerged as the face of AAP in Punjab, this election served as a litmus test of his leadership, government’s two-year performance, and the party's appeal beyond the state assembly.
Meanwhile, the BJP, despite facing campaign challenges due to farmers’ protest and contesting the elections without any alliances for the first time after 1996, appeared to have made significant inroads in Punjab’s electoral landscape. The exit polls indicated that BJP’s tally might double from two seats in 2019 to four now — a testament to the party's resilience and strategic maneuvering. Buoyed by the support of non-Jat voters, particularly Hindus and Dalits, BJP aimed to consolidate its presence in the State and emerge as a key player in Punjab’s political ecosystem.
For the first time, the BJP, which previously did not contest in the state’s Malwa region for Lok Sabha seats, established booths in every village across this largest region of the state on the polling day. A party which struggled to even campaign in the state’s rural areas, had set up its booths in rural segments, adorned with party flags, garnering support from Dalits in villages and Hindus in cities, indicating at a significant expansion of BJP’s grassroots presence.
Building up its state party unit with the leaders from other parties, in fact having 11 turncoats as candidates out of 13, the saffron party seems to have managed to have workers at every village level, including in lone Muslim-dominated constituency of Malerkotla. Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar, a former Congressman with a Congress lineage, had all along been claiming that 2024 Lok Sabha polls are the “trial run”, with the real contest anticipated in the 2027 Assembly elections.
For the Akali Dal, once a dominant force in Punjab politics, the exit polls spell uncertainty and potential decline. The projections suggested that SAD is teetering on the brink, with its electoral prospects hanging in the balance. Ever since its defeat in the 2017 elections, SAD has struggled to regain its footing, grappling with internal dissent and electoral setbacks. The exit polls underscored the party's precarious position and the need for a strategic realignment to stay relevant in Punjab's ever-changing political landscape.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress secured a dominant position in Punjab, winning eight seats with a 40.12 percent vote share. Akali Dal and BJP won two seats each, collectively garnering 37.08 percent of the votes, with AAP managing to secure one seat with 7.38 percent of the vote share.
However, the political landscape shifted dramatically in the 2022 Assembly elections, where the AAP achieved a sweeping victory, capturing 92 out of 117 seats.
Amidst these electoral dynamics, certain constituencies emerge as battlegrounds of intense competition. In Patiala, the contest between former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh’s wife Preneet Kaur, Congress’ Dr Dharamvira Gandhi, and AAP’s Cabinet Minister Dr Balbir Singh, underscored the high stakes involved. Similarly, Ludhiana witnessed a fierce battle, with former Chief Minister Beant Singh’s grandson Ravneet Singh Bittu, facing off against Congress state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and AAP MLA Ashok Parashar Pappi.
However, amidst the cacophony of electoral politics, one cannot overlook the underlying currents that shape Punjab’s socio-political landscape. The farmer protests, which galvanized widespread support and captured global attention, continue to reverberate across the State. While the exit polls suggest that BJP may have consolidated its support base among non-Jat voters, the farmer unions remain a potent force, wielding considerable influence over Punjab's political narrative.
As Punjab awaits the final verdict on June 4, these exit polls serve as signposts of potential trends rather than definitive outcomes. In a state known for its political volatility and unpredictable electoral dynamics, surprises are par for the course. Whether the exit poll predictions materialize into reality or undergo a dramatic reversal remains to be seen. In the end, it is the people of Punjab who will have the final say, shaping the destiny of their state and its political future.
WHAT THE EXIT POLLS SAYS
The exit polls revealed on Saturday evening varying projections have been made regarding the potential winners of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats. According to Republic-Matrize and P-Mark, AAP could secure four seats, Congress three, and the BJP two seats. Additionally, two seats are projected to go to other parties, indicating the result in favour of Sikh Khalistan ideologue Amritpal Singh, SAD (Amritsar) president and Sangrur MP Simranjeet Singh Mann, or son of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassin Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa.
India TV-CNX exit poll suggested that AAP might win between two to four seats, while Congress could bag four to six. BJP is expected to win two to three seats, and SAD might secure one to three seats.
News Nation’s exit poll indicated that BJP will win two seats, Congress six, AAP four, and one seat will go to another party. According to SAAM-Jan, AAP is expected to win between four to six seats, Congress four to five seats, BJP two to three seats, and SAD one seat.
News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll gives both BJP and Congress four seats each, AAP two seats, and others three seats. Times Now Navbharat projects Congress to win five seats, while both BJP and AAP might win four seats each. ABP-CVoter exit poll suggests that both Congress and AAP might secure three to four seats each, SAD three to five seats, and BJP one to three seats.
