In a remarkable observation which indicates increased economic opportunities across the country, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) has estimated the number of domestic migrants has lowered by around 12 per cent to 40.20 crore between 2011 and 2023.

“The overall number of migrants in the country, as of 2023, is 40,20,90,396. This is about 11.78 per cent lower as compared to the number of migrants enumerated as per Census 2011 [45,57,87,621]. Consequently, the migration rate which stood at 37.64% as per Census 2011 is estimated to have since reduced to 28.88% of the population,” according to a working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).

The paper titled ‘400 Million Dreams! Examining volume and directions of domestic migration in India using novel high frequency data’, pointed out that  West Bengal, Rajasthan and Karnataka are the States showing the maximum amount of growth in percentage share of the arriving passengers. Similarly, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are States where the percentage share of total migrants has reduced.

“At the state level, Uttar Pradesh-Delhi; Gujarat-Maharashtra; Telangana-Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar-Delhi emerge as the primary dyads of the movement,” it said. At the district level, Murshidabad - Kolkata; Paschim Bardhaman-Howrah; Valsad - Mumbai; Chittoor - Bengaluru Urban and Surat - Mumbai are the most popular routes for migration between districts. This has implications for urban planning as well as for planning of transportation networks. According to the report, April-June is the high month for migrant movement with November-December witnessing secondary highs. December-January and September-October are the months with the highest inflows whereas May-June and January-February are the months with the highest outflows in Mumbai.

These are perhaps months where most migrant labour travel back to their places of origin. A secondary high in winter time is perhaps indicative of travel around the festival/marriage season. January, on the other hand, appears to be the month of lowest travel.

“Even prior to the pandemic related lockdowns, there were signs of the passenger movement showing little growth, however after the pandemic, even the high months i.e. April-May are at a distinctly lower level as compared to the corresponding period before the pandemic, passenger levels for May 2023 being 6.67% lower than the corresponding number for May 2012.  Further, it is interesting to note that a majority [>75%] of our predicted migration flows are within 500 kms of the origin. This is in line with gravitation effects and theories such as Ravenstein’s Theory of Human Migration (1834 - 1913),” it said.

“We hypothesize that this is on account of availability of improved services such as education, health, infrastructure and connectivity as well as improved economic opportunities in or near in major sources of migration and is an indicator of overall economic growth,” noted the paper authored by former EAC-PM chairman Bibek Debroy.

The paper used three high-frequency and granular data sets, Indian Railway Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) data on passenger volumes; mobile telephone subscribers roaming data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), and district level banking data to understand the likely impact of migration at the places of origin. Using TRAI’s mobile phone roaming data, the report finds that April-June is the high month for movement with November-December witnessing secondary highs.

The report said the total number of passengers carried by the Railways in 2023-24 stood at 6,843 Million. This includes 3,852 Million Suburban passengers and 2,991 Million non-Suburban passengers. Indian Railways defines suburban services as those being up to 150 Kms. A secondary high in winter time is perhaps indicative of travel around the festival/marriage season. January, on the other hand, appears to be the month of lowest travel, it said.

As per Census 2011, just five states, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, together account for about 48 per cent of the total outbound migrants, which includes within-state migrants as well. Similarly, just five states, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, together account for about 48 per cent of all incoming migrants. This includes within-state migrants as well.

In the period from 1991 to 2001, the compounded annual growth rate of the number of migrants was 2.7 per cent. This increased to 3.7 per cent during 2001 to 2011. Interestingly, in the period from 1991 to 2001, India’s workforce grew from 3.17 crore to 4.02 crore (an annual average growth of 2.6 per cent), whereas from 2001 to 2011, the workforce grew from 4.02 crore to 4.82 crore (an annual average growth of 1.99 per cent).