The political chessboard in Bihar, with its crucial 40 Lok Sabha seats, is considered the most important battleground for both the ruling party and the Opposition. Recent developments indicate a slight shift as the RJD, Congress, and Left combine Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) have reportedly offered eight Lok Sabha seats to the faction led by Chirag Paswan.
Sources suggest that Chirag may have to settle for only two seats to contest as part of NDA discussions, while the faction led by Pashupati Paras could secure four seats.
To resolve the tussle, both Paswans may need to contest with three Lok Sabha seats each. The Grand Alliance partners have reached out to Chirag, offering eight Lok Sabha seats in Bihar and an additional two in Uttar Pradesh.
Chirag’s demand stems from the continuity of the Lok Janshakti Party led by his late father, Ram Vilas Paswan. He claims rights to the same seats won in the 2019 elections. Conversely, Pashupati Paras asserts that five out of the six Lok Janshakti Party MPs are now with him, and his party is part of the National Lok Janshakti Party, validating his claim to six seats.
The family feud within one of Bihar’s top political families - the Paswans - appears to have become a topic of interest for both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA Bloc. The dispute between the national president of the Lok Janshakti Party, (Ram Vilas), and MP Chirag Paswan, along with his uncle and Union Minister Pashupati Paras, has led to a delay in the seat-sharing process for the NDA, of which the JD(U) led by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is now a part. Chirag and Nitish share a troubled equation and the former had sought a solace from the BJP when the latter broke away from the Opposition Bloc to get into the umbrella of the NDA.
Simultaneously, there is also concern for the Opposition Bloc. Following the exits of JD(U) in Bihar and RLD in Western Uttar Pradesh from the INDIA Bloc to join the NDA, major stakeholders like the Congress and the Samajwadi Party are anticipating a bumpy road.
This is due to the Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, which has expressed intentions to contest multiple seats in Hindi heartland States besides Maharashtra. This move may upset the constituents of its minority voters.
The INDIA Bloc has high hopes from Bihar, UP, and Maharashtra, where the alliance is working to challenge and unsettle the BJP’s numbers in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
Another battle looms over the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat, currently represented by Pashupati, where both contenders seek to run. Chirag stakes his claim on the Hajipur seat, citing the legacy of his late father, Ram Vilas Paswan.
With the AIMIM, according to sources, planning to contest on as many as 20 seats in UP and about seven seats in Bihar may hurt interest of the INDIA Bloc. In the 2019 polls, the party had contested only one seat from the heartland, in Bihar.
The AIMIM will also enter the fray in Maharashtra — where it could foray into Mumbai and Marathwada — as well as Telangana where besides its home turf Hyderabad, it may also contest from Secunderabad.
The party, however, is unlikely to contest in the TMC-ruled West Bengal, where it had fielded candidates in the 2021 Assembly polls.
AIMIM currently has two seats in the Lok Sabha, represented by Asaduddin Owaisi (Hyderabad) and Imtiaz Jaleel (Aurangabad). In 2019, Akhtar-ul-Iman, the AIMIM candidate from Kishanganj, had polled almost 3 lakh votes, coming third behind the Congress and the JD(U) candidates.
Kishanganj was the only seat in Bihar out of 40 that the Congress-RJD alliance had won in 2019. The AIMIM will again field Akhtar-ul-Iman from the seat.
Although the AIMIM had not fielded any candidates in UP in 2019, it had done well in local body polls in the State in 2017, securing 32 seats. And even though the party did not win any seat in the 2022 UP Assembly polls, the votes it had polled in more than 10 seats were more than the margin of defeat for the SP candidates there.
The AIMIM’s bid to enter Mumbai and Marathwada, around 12 per cent of whose population is Muslim, would also be a concern for the INDIA Bloc.
