As both countries grapple with domestic politics and external pressures, the ties are now at its most fragile point, threatening trade, security and people-to-people connections
Two of the world’s leading democracies, India and Canada, are currently engaged in a rather unseemly, explosive diplomatic row over Ottawa’s refusal to rein in Khalistani elements thriving on Canadian soil. New Delhi believes these elements, all Canadian nationals, have been allowed unfettered freedom, imperilling India’s security interests. With Ottawa paying no heed to New Delhi’s concerns, a traditionally close relationship nurtured over a long period now lies torn into shreds.
The spat with Canada could also impinge on India’s geopolitical equations with members of the powerful intelligence-sharing ‘Fives Eyes’ alliance. The Justin Trudeau-led government has approached the alliance and got the backing of the other four members – the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand – on its allegations linking the Indian government’s “agents” to “criminal activities” in Canada, including the killing of Khalistani separatist Kuldeep Singh Nijjar in June last year. All these alliance partners have their eyes firmly set on the crucial Indo-Pacific. So does India. Surely, none would want the imbroglio to adversely impact their geostrategic alignment to counter China’s aggressive expansionism in the region. If Ottawa’s charges on the Indian government’s involvement do turn out to be correct, New Delhi would have an egg on its face.
While covert operations to carry out hit jobs in foreign lands to take out elements inimical to a country’s interests are nothing new, being caught with proof of overt involvement can prove to be a major embarrassment. It’s noteworthy that the US, unlike Canada, has been far more discreet in its approach while seeking India’s cooperation in investigating a plot to kill Khalistani separatist leader and its national Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who leads Sikhs for Justice. The US strategy is driven in no small measure by its desire to not cause any major rift in bilateral strategic ties with India, even though it continues to put pressure on New Delhi on the issue. Trudeau, on the other hand, is driven by his desire to woo for his domestic political gains a section of the Sikh diaspora who support Khalistan.
Discretion in such a sensitive matter, therefore, has been thrown to the winds. The Trudeau government’s sovereignty concerns over the Najjar killing, however, do not extend to alleged Chinese interference in Canadian federal elections both in 2019 and 2021. The eruption of the New Delhi-Ottawa diplomatic war was not unexpected, given the simmering tensions between the two for several years now over what the former believes is the Trudeau government’s abject failure to rein in Khalistani separatists in Canada who pose a security risk to India. For New Delhi, what broke the camel’s back this time around was Canada’s contention that six Indian diplomats, including the high commissioner, were “persons of interest” in the ongoing probe into Nijjar’s killing and its demand that their diplomatic immunity be revoked. Nijjar had been designated a terrorist by India for his separatist activities. New Delhi has repeatedly raised the issue of Khalistani elements having a free run in Canada in recent years only to have “freedom of expression” being thrown back at it by the Trudeau government. These elements have had floats depicting former PM Indira Gandhi’s assassination in processions to mark the 40th anniversary of ‘Operation Bluestar’, and recently even published posters issuing death threats to senior Indian diplomats, stoking New Delhi’s concerns.
Trudeau’s Liberal Party has thrived on support from the Sikh diaspora that exercises significant influence in some important parliamentary seats. A pro-Khalistan Canadian politician, Jagmeet Singh, who leads the New Democratic Party, has played a crucial role in enabling Trudeau’s minority government to remain in power by signing a deal supporting it in no-confidence votes. Singh called off this deal last month but elections in Canada are slated to be held next year anyway if Trudeau’s government can survive until then. New Delhi, in any case, will be happy to see the back of Trudeau. Now, with his government even threatening “sanctions” against India, it’s fairly evident that Ottawa is willing to jeopardise even vital trade and economic ties with India. It halted negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in September last year as bilateral relations soured. Canada’s own Indo-Pacific strategy had earlier recognised India as a “critical partner”, seeking deeper trade and economic ties.
Bilateral trade was pegged at $9.36 billion in 2023. The turbulence in ties can have a deleterious impact on trade and economic links. What could also take a hit are people-to-people ties, especially with Canada being a favoured destination for Indian students for higher education.
An estimated 4.27 lakh Indian students are studying in Canada, helping its educational institutes earn much-needed revenue. Canada is also home to a huge Indian diaspora of 1.8 million – Trudeau will only alienate himself from them while allowing Khalistani radicals to flourish. Trudeau would do well to remember that it was Khalistani separatist elements who carried out the bombing of AI Kanishka Flight 182 in June 1985, killing 329 persons of whom a majority were Canadian citizens of Indian origin. Allowing radical elements to thrive for the sake of political expediency has never done any nation good. As two mature democracies who have often cited this fact as one that underpins their bilateral ties, both India and Canada need to pull back from the diplomatic war they are engaged in. A sour relationship can only cause further damage in the long run.
(The writer is a senior New Delhi-based journalist who writes on foreign affairs; views are personal)
