Caste census and reservation are issues which no political party can skip as they know these are vital to garner OBC votes
As the date of the Lok Sabha elections is approaching, the debate on caste census is now gaining momentum. Now BJP also feels that this is the only weapon to strengthen its hold on OBC votes. This is why recently Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in a Vidhan sabha rally that the BJP has never been against caste census. Such a statement came when its allies from the OBC vote base openly expressed their support for the caste census. According to the Bihar Caste Survey, the OBC population in the state is 63.1%. The Modi government is worried that the caste census could give rise to competing demands, which could upset its delicate caste balance. At the same time, BJP leaders have also gradually realised that the party cannot continue its silence on this issue for long. Earlier many BJP leaders are also keenly watching the opposition's demand for OBC quota within women's reservation. Some state BJP leaders, especially those from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are believed to have expressed seriousness about the opposition's efforts to create a rift in the BJP's OBC vote base.
After coming to power at the Center in 2014, the BJP, has started aggressively wooing the backward communities. In this, the party made leaders coming from backward communities as MPs, MLAs and ministers and also advised them to convey the government's message to them. Parliamentary committees were asked to convey information to the backward and scheduled castes and tribes from Jammu and Kashmir to the South.
BJP leaders claim that, in the current Lok Sabha, the party has 113 OBC, 53 Scheduled Caste (SC) and 43 Scheduled Tribe (ST) MPs, which is about 70% of its total MPs. This is a far cry from the long-held perception of the BJP being a Brahmin-Baniya-dominated party. According to CSDS-Lokniti data analysis, the BJP's share in OBC votes is continuously increasing. In 2014, the BJP got 34% of OBC votes and then in 2019, this number increased to 44%. Whereas Congress got 25% OBC votes in 1996 but got only 15% in 2019. CSDS-Lokniti analysis also found that the BJP's vote share among the poor increased by 12% between 2014 and 2019. BJP's vote share increased by 12% among the poor, 5% among the lower class, 6% among the middle class and 6% among the upper-middle class. The increase in vote share was mainly due to the Centre's welfare schemes and Government policies were held responsible for reaching the beneficiaries. However, now some portion may also decrease due to disillusionment with price rise and increasing unemployment.
In this regard, Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the assembly poll-bound state of Chhattisgarh said: "BJP has never opposed the caste census, but a decision will have to be taken only after careful consideration."Not only this, he also met top OBC leaders from at least 10 states in Delhi, which went on till midnight, to discuss strategies to retain the BJP's support base among the backward communities.
BJP appointed OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini as its Haryana president. Saini replaces Om Prakash Dhankhar, who belongs to the influential Jat community. Amit Shah announced in Telangana that if BJP comes to power in the state, it will make a leader from the backward class the Chief Minister.
Shah's statement was a change from the BJP's stance on the caste census issue, in which the party was careful not to commit itself in any way. This happened when his allies with the OBC vote base were openly declaring support for the caste census. By such a calculation, firstly, the number of OBCs is expected to be much higher than the share of the reservation to which they are presently entitled.
The BJP is worried that the caste census could give rise to competing demands in the states and also inflame other forgotten demands for quota, thereby upsetting its delicate caste balance. They have realised that the party cannot continue its silence on this issue. The BJP is keeping an eye on this, while the Congress, through its Bharat Jodo Yatra, has been quite successful in establishing Rahul Gandhi as a leader who is the well-wishers of the marginalised.
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) president Mayawati asked people in Madhya Pradesh not to be misled by the Congress's demand for a caste census. She reminded people that after Independence, under the Congress rule, the Kaka Kalelkar Commission and the Mandal Commission recommended reservation for Other Backward Classes OBCs. But Congress did not implement them. Amit Shah has tried to politicize the call for caste census. Similarly, Prime Minister Modi has also claimed that "poor" is the only caste that is relevant. However soon after the Bihar caste survey findings were released, senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi claimed that the survey was the BJP's "child" as the party was part of the coalition government that had decided to conduct it. Some NDA allies have also supported the demand for a national caste census. More or less, caste census and reservation are too tempting to forget. The general elections would indeed have political parties falling over each other to garner OBC votes. Caste census would come in handy.
(The writer is a senior journalist, views are personal)
