With Mamata vying for the leadership of the INDIA bloc supported by a number constituents, chances of the bloc succumbing to internal disputes are high

The INDIA bloc, a coalition of 26 ideologically diverse parties, was created to counter the BJP’s electoral dominance. In the 2024 general elections, the bloc achieved a significant milestone, reducing the BJP’s tally to below 240 seats. However, this success has been tempered by internal discord, which now threatens the alliance’s fragile unity.

A key figure in this unfolding drama is Mamata Banerjee, the dynamic leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Her aspirations for leadership within the coalition have both galvanised and fractured its members. Mamata Banerjee’s National Ambitions Mamata Banerjee’s bid for prominence within the INDIA bloc stems from her desire to extend her influence beyond West Bengal and play a decisive role in shaping national politics. Her assertive style has invigorated some allies but has alienated others, exposing the persistent challenge of reconciling regional ambitions with a unified national strategy. Earlier, Banerjee proposed Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge as the bloc’s chairperson, a strategic move to diminish the influence of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, one of the coalition’s key architects.

This proposal, supported by leaders like Akhilesh Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal, showcased Banerjee’s ability to consolidate support. However, her growing clout has sparked unease among other leaders. For instance, Lalu Prasad Yadav, a staunch Congress ally, appears to be rethinking his loyalties. Such dynamics highlight the alliance’s precarious balance and the potential for further fractures.

Lessons from the Past: UPA2 The INDIA bloc’s current challenges echo the struggles faced by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA2) during its tenure. In 2012, Mamata Banerjee’s dramatic exit from the UPA over policy disagreements underscored the inherent instability of coalition politics. Scandals and policy paralysis plagued UPA2, eroding its credibility and paving the way for Narendra Modi’s rise.

As Banerjee’s ambitions take center stage, the INDIA bloc risks repeating history. If it fails to address its internal contradictions, it could suffer the same fate as UPA2, jeopardising its ability to present a united front against the BJP. BJP’s Advantage Amid Opposition Discord The BJP stands to benefit from the INDIA bloc’s internal strife. While Banerjee wields considerable influence in West Bengal, Congress retains a broader national presence. A fragmented opposition could split anti-BJP votes, a scenario that would play into the saffron party’s hands. Recent BJP gains in Maharashtra and Haryana underscore the bloc’s challenges, particularly for Congress, which has struggled to maintain dominance in key states. Seat-sharing disputes within the bloc further illustrate its lack of strategic coherence.

For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party’s unilateral candidate announcements in Delhi and Haryana have fueled tensions, revealing the alliance’s inability to present a united strategy.

Mamata vs Congress:  Mamata Banerjee’s leadership ambitions pose a paradox for Congress. Her energy and charisma could revitalise the bloc, but her assertiveness risks overshadowing Congress’s central role. This tension is particularly pronounced in states like West Bengal and Kerala, where Congress directly competes with the TMC and the Left. Seat-sharing negotiations in overlapping constituencies could exacerbate divisions, straining the alliance further. For Congress, retaining relevance within the INDIA bloc will require a delicate balancing act: accommodating Banerjee’s influence without compromising its identity. Key Challenges for the INDIA Bloc The alliance faces several hurdles that could determine its survival:

Leadership Struggles: The lack of consensus on a prime ministerial candidate risks deepening divisions.

Unified Campaign Narrative: A focus on governance, economic policies, and social justice can resonate with voters more effectively than personal rivalries.

Effective Coordination: Mechanisms for conflict resolution and decision-making must be strengthened. Balancing Regional and National Goals: Respecting regional aspirations while pursuing a cohesive national agenda is critical.

A Test of Political Maturity: Mamata Banerjee’s ambitions underscore her political acumen and the complexities of coalition politics. While her leadership could energise the INDIA bloc, it also risks deepening divisions. Navigating this intricate web of regional and national aspirations will test the bloc’s political maturity.

The upcoming state elections and the 2029 general elections will be pivotal in determining whether the INDIA bloc can overcome its internal strife and emerge as a credible alternative to the BJP. Resolving leadership disputes, crafting a compelling narrative, and presenting a unified front are critical to its success.

(The writer is a policy analyst based in Shimla; views are personal)