A summit involving the Heads of States or Heads of Governments of the members of the SCO,Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was scheduled to be held in New Delhi. The congregation was modified to a ‘Virtual Summit Meet’ and was consequently chaired by the Indian Prime Minister.
The decision of hosting a virtual summit signalled two significant concerns.
Firstly, india was wary of the China-Pakistan nexus, which could easily derail the SCO either during the meet or through its interaction with global media houses.
Secondly, India could not risk sabotaging the relationship it had built with the USA especially after the Indian PM’s state visit to the USA.
Hosting Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia and Xi Jinping, the Premier of the People’s Republic of China could have led to souring of Indo-US relations. The western countries have routinely branded Putin as an “Aggressor” and have demanded he be tried in the ICC, International Criminal Court, following his decision to go to war with Ukraine. The ICC at Hague had even issued an arrest warrant for Putin for the forceful relocation of children from Ukraine to Russia. As India is not a signatory to the Rome Statute and thus not a member of the ICC, it is not duty bound to execute said warrant. However, this would blemish India’s image and India would be crucified by the global media if there was even a hint that India was defending Putin’s presence at the summit .
In the light of the growing tensions between USA and China, inviting Xi Jinping could have also proved to be a dangerous line to toe. Xi Jinping himself was not keen on the visit after the Indo-China border dispute debacle. It is no secret that India has not supported and does not ever intend to support China’s golden project- The Belt and Road Initiative, BRI. India has long maintained that China should not be permitted to build anything substantial neither in POK, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir nor In Gilgit Baltistan. A constituent of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, and the BRI is the Karakoram Highway. The highway in question and naturally the initiative as a whole have been long opposed by India.
Accepting the BRI and projects under it would imply accepting the sovereignty of Pakistan and China over disputed territories and, in turn, India forfeiting claims over said territories. The acceptance could also be construed as India accepting both, the Line of Control, LOC with Pakistan and the LAC, Line of Actual Control with China. Thus India rightfully refused to endorse or even remotely show any support for China’s initiative.
Additionally, since Iran was to be inducted in the SCO as a full member during this Summit, it could have been slightly embarrassing for the Indian Prime Minister to be seen sharing the dais with the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi when the USA views Iran with a lot of contempt. India congratulating Iran on a virtual stage would merely be seen as fulfilment of courtesy and protocol and would not attract much negative attention.
The virtual summit started well, until member nations caused it to be pulled into directions, which were congruent with their ideological priorities.
Kazakhstan insisted on addressing the issue of integration of energy by cooperation amongst the member states. However, the other central Asian countries of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan were more concerned with cooperation within the global economy, eradication of external threats, remedies to combat regional terrorism, promoting cultural bonds and development of infrastructure so as to attain peace and prosperity in the region. It is pertinent to note that the Central Asian nations mostly stuck to the official agenda of the meeting even though their apparent and actual influence on the power dynamic is not as relevant as some of the other countries’.
The Big 3 of the SCO : Russia, China and India too pressed for actualising of their individual priorities.
Vladimir Purim’s approach was confined to defending his authoritarian regime, indirectly justifying the attack on Ukraine and reiterating how he still wields tremendous power even after the rebellion led by Y. V. Prigozhin, the head of the private mercenary group, Wagner. He further launched a tirade against the decision of the western bloc to impose sanctions on Russia.
Merely a decade ago, Xi Jinping had paid homage to Rabindranath Tagore, Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru. In 2014, he had quoted Tagore, “Grow like a summer flower; magnificently, die like an autumn leaf, quietly and beautifully.” During the SCO, once again, Xi Jinping referenced Tagore stating, “The sea of danger, doubt and denial around man's little island of certainty challenges him to dare the unknown”. However, theatricality should not draw attention away from the fact that China’s true agenda has been to establish economic hegemony in the region. Xi Jinping’s seemingly vocal concerns for global economic partnership and regional security should be viewed as distractions and nothing more.
The Indian PM voiced his concerns pertaining to terrorism in general and cross border terrorism as a state tool while also touching upon digital cooperation. He observed, “The SCO is an extended family. We all should redress the concerns of: Security, economic development, connectivity, unity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and environmental protection, being the pillars of our vision for SCO.” He also drew inspiration from Buddhism to buttress India’s demand for digital cooperation. Consequently, he introduced ‘Bhasini’, an AI language platform developed by India that could help overcome language barriers within the SCO.
Furthermore, India rejected the proposal made by Tajikistan, termed ‘ Trade and Investment to promote regional integration’ as it reflected a heavy bias in favour of China.
Pakistan entered the melee in advocating for its own hidden agenda. This had only been made possible as China had pushed for Pakistan being granted membership to the SCO in response to Russia pushing for India’s admission as a full member. It should be noted that Pakistan is absent from every other major global multi-forum.
Since the Army of Pakistan fully controls two vastly important subject matters in Pakistan’s governance, namely Security and Foreign Affairs, it was clear that the PM had been tutored by the Army and not his Foreign Minister, on how to conduct himself during the SCO meet. Also, during the meeting, Shehbaaz Sharif remained fixated on the fact that India had brought up state sponsored cross border terrorism. This phrase alone was enough to cause Mr. Sharif to tunnel vision and lose sight of the bigger picture just so that he could scupper India’s aims. Shehbaaz Sharif rebutted, “Any temptation to use terrorism as a cudgel for diplomatic point scoring must be eschewed.” It is ironic that Mr. Sharif would make such demands while the ‘Establishment of Pakistan’ still fails to dismantle terror networks, which operate from within its territory. Moreover, Mr. Sharif conveniently ignored the fact that India has been ready, as evidenced even during the G-8 Summit in Hiroshima, to fruitfully engage with Pakistan if cross border terrorism was eradicated by the latter.
As the summit proceeded, sufficient attention was paid to Afghanistan as well. However it is unlikely that the Taliban government would readily and absolutely accede to all the advice and preachings tendered by the SCO member states. Advising the Taliban to adopt the ideals of inclusive governance and to secure women’s and children’s rights may irk the Taliban.
The nations showed a united front in dealing with the issues of human rights and environmental issues while reiterating their pledge of non-interference, by other countries, with the internal affairs of the member states. These promises, however, should be viewed as largely hollow until an institutional framework is put into place. Moreover, commitments to safeguarding human rights by countries like China, Pakistan, Russia and Iran seem useless as these countries continue to routinely violate said rights.
The states were also unanimous in the demands for reforms within institutions such as the UNO, UNSC, WTO, IMF and World Bank to name a few. Once again this seems unlikely as China would oppose any attempts for India to have a permanent seat in the UNSC, United Nations Security Council and would probably go as far as to veto an endorsement made in India’s favour by the other four permanent members. Similarly, India and other Western powers would oppose China playing a bigger role in global commercial and financial institutions.
The issues, which remained markedly absent from the discussions are also of significance. Geopolitical issues like the Russia-Ukraine war and the fragility of Peace in the Indo- Pacific found no mention in the entirety of the meeting.
With no common objective attained, a lacklustre statement was issued promising to move forward and progress at the next meeting of the SCO in Kazakhstan,.
The meeting was dismissed, the leaders wished each other well and the summit came to an unimpassioned conclusion. The tall promises made in all the previous meetings, including the most recent one, became irrelevant as soon as the large screen televisions turned black.
Pranjal Pandey is a lawyer by profession and Ajay is technocrat turned bureaucrat. Views expressed are personal.
