The Opposition conclave in Mumbai will decide the future of the alliance itself

The third meeting of the Opposition alliance, scheduled to begin today in Mumbai, has already generated much curiosity in political circles. The 26-party Opposition alliance will discuss strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and deliberate on, among other things, organisational set-up and the parties’ respective responsibilities. For dealing with various aspects of elections, the alliance plans to set up a coordination committee and several smaller committees to handle various aspects of their functioning. They also intend to hold at least three more such conclaves before the elections. As per indications, the Opposition leaders aim to campaign on issues such as unemployment, price rise, assault on the nation’s federal structure and use of investigating agencies against Opposition leaders. The coalition is also likely to unveil its logo at the meeting but, more importantly, it would be the first time the 26-party coalition would brainstorm strategic issues including seat-sharing which could make or mar the alliance itself. Besides, the grapevine has it that more political parties would be joining the Opposition alliance which would strengthen its position vis-à-vis NDA, which is 38-party strong. However, the alliance has inherent contradictions which need to be addressed before preparing a strategy. Many leaders are in the alliance as they have only one thing in common, which is the desire to defeat NDA. All such alliances, and we have a long history of such alliances including the Janata Party which wilted after taking on Indira Gandhi, are fragile by their very nature.

The biggest drawback with this alliance is that no one stands tall enough to provide unchallenged leadership. Most leaders – including Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav and so on – do not have pan-India appeal, though they all are earnestly indulging in upmanship within the alliance to upstage the claims of the others without seem to be trying too hard for it. Congress, which could have provided the leadership and cohesion, is still grappling with internal bickering while Rahul Gandhi is yet to assume the stature of an established leader. Nitish Kumar, the convener and organiser, suffers from two drawbacks – one, the base of his party JD(U) has eroded and; two, his credibility as a dependable unwavering leader is suspect. His eagerness to project himself as the uncrowned leader of the alliance suffered a setback when he recently had to backtrack and clarify that he would rather be happy to remain just the glue that holds the coalition together. The first meeting to foster the Opposition unity was held in Patna in June, while the second one took place in Bengaluru in mid-July. It was in the Bengaluru conclave that the name of the coalition was chosen as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, abbreviated as INDIA. Though most of the alliance leaders hide behind the veneer of high-sounding claims that they have no desire to lead it and they are happy to be just part of the coalition, it will be tested only in and after the elections.