The decision on the Agniveer recruitment drive is likely to be delayed until May-June when the Nepali PM discusses the issue with PM Modi in India

Last week, I celebrated Nepal’s New Year in Pokhara covered in a perpetual haze obscuring the splendour of the iconic Machhapuchhre (Fishtail Mountain), which is also the presiding deity of the valley which was recently blessed with a Chinese-built international airport that threatens to become a white elephant. The Chinesebuilt Pokhara-Kathmandu road is being turned into a six-lane highway over five years till when dust kicked up by earthmovers and forest fires will keep Machhapuchhre shrouded.

In Kathmandu, the nineparty coalition is hampered in completing government formation by the single-largest but factionalised Nepali Congress party and three byelections due on April 23 to accommodate, among others, the defeated Janta Samajwadi Party stalwart, Upendra Yadav, in case he wins from Bara constituency.

Meanwhile, PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s (Prachanda) visit to India due this month is delayed till May for lack of a full Cabinet, especially Foreign Minister NC’s NP Saud, who was sworn in on Sunday.

Always divided into camps, NC now has a hekhar KoiralaGagan Thapa faction demanding four Cabinet berths but has settled for three Ministers and one Minister of State. This will be the
eighth Cabinet expansion since December 26, 2022. Prachanda will start breathing normally once his Cabinet is formalised. He has won two votes of confidence and obtained a majority vote for NC chief Ram Chandra Paudel.

In a wobbly coalition, there are likely to be three PMs – Prachanda for two years, Madhav Nepal (Nepal Communist Socialist) for one year and Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) for two years. There is no certainty about the longevity of this unorthodox power-sharing agreement. A new development could roil this arrangement. The tintinnabulating Rashtriya Swatantra Party whose charismatic and controversial leader Rabi Lamichhane, after settling his citizenship case, is hoping to reclaim his Chitwan seat following the dual citizenship fiasco. RSP is the fourth largest party but has lately been
embroiled in fraud and corruption. After the Lamichhane imbroglio, lawmaker Dhaka Kumar Shreshtha was allegedly caught on video demanding Rs 2mn for securing the Health Minister’s portfolio for one Durga Prasai. Shreshtha was instantly sacked by Lamichhane for a clean image

RSP is engulfed in discontent due to Lamichhane’s arbitrariness in appointing Shreshtha’s replacement as a lawmaker through a proportional representation system. Lamichhane’s ambitions are
larger than his ego, his opponents say. Privately, he has been saying that if the leader of a party not recognised as national and with only 10 seats – Madhav Nepal – can be PM, why not RSP with 20 seats? The tantalising question is whether the Prachanda-Deuba coalition will take him or his party on board or can he, by joining Opposition KP Oli’s coalition, destabilise the government. That seems quite unlikely. A twist in the tale is the deep bonding between Lamichhane and Gagan Thapa, NC’s rising star.

For Prachanda, Maoist excesses during the civil war along with his statement that he was ready to take moral responsibility for 5,000 conflict victims (out of 17,000 insurgency deaths), he says, has no
legal implications as it was a political statement with a focus on Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Haribol Gajurel, his chief advisor, has said the TRC Bill will hasten the conclusion of the peace process.

Ahead of Prachanda’s visit to New Delhi, Nepal, according to Kathmandu Post, has ‘gifted’ India Lower Arun II to Sutlej Jal Vidyut Nigam. This is the third project on a single river awarded to India after the 900 MW Arun III and 695 MW Arun IV projects. Fiscal Nepalreported last September that Adani Group representatives had thrice met then Deuba government officials in Nepal Electricity Authority and wished to invest in the 10,000MW Karnali-Chisapani project and construct 400- 600 KV transmission lines.

Other projects awarded to India are West Seti Hydroelectric 750MW and SetiVI 669 MW. Nepal, at long last, has learnt a lesson from Bhutan on its liquid gold assets. In 15 years, Nepal has increased its power production from 600 MW to 2500 MW and, last year, earned $100 mn by exporting power to India in the wet season.

In my conversations with Indian Army Gorkha ex-servicemen, I learnt that on longdelayed Agniveer four-year recruitment, there are mixed feelings. A Gorkha veteran told me that Agniveers returning to Nepal will be branded as ‘rejected’ when only 25 per cent are re-enlisted. Some are happy that these lads will return with Nepali Rs18 lakh and can start a business or go abroad. But many are unhappy there has been no recruitment for three years. The new Cabinet will likely be fairly ignorant about Agniveer. While the Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Committee will be formed later this month, the decision on Agniveer is likely to be delayed into May-June after Prachanda visits India. Gorkha Regiment Training Centres in India have so far trained a batch of IndianDomiciled Gorkha Agniveers. Another batch is under training and both exclude Nepali Domiciled Gorkhas. With only IDGs available for recruitment, the elite Gorkha Brigade of the Indian Army will be missing its Nepali brethren. PM Prachanda will urge Modi not to leave Nepal with an unsavoury option on Agniveer.

(The writer, a retired Lt Gen, was Commander, IPKF South, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal)