India and the member nations must ensure that BRICS is not used as a geopolitical tool by China to further its hegemonic designs
The BRICS summit in South Africa is being termed historic, mainly because it has been agreed that six new nations will be added to the BRICS in the days to come. China wanted to even include Pakistan in the folds of BRICS, but India stood its ground. Is China trying to establish its geo-political agenda by using the BRICS nations? What is the reason for the selection of the said six nations into the folds of BRICS? Most of these nations are part of the One Belt One Road project of China and have proximity to China in one way or the other. Come to think of it, is it China that is calling the shots at the BRICS? Russia and China’s ties are at their historic best right now and with the physical absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin from the summit, the outcome of the summit was largely in the hands of two other big players, that is, India and China. But has India emerged strategically stronger or is it that China leveraged BRICS to its advantage? This is a moot point and the real question.
Of the six nations in question, Iran is very close to China, both officially and unofficially. In March 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement to include “political, strategic and economic” components. China and Saudi Arabia too are strategic allies and the two nations have seen more cooperation in the energy and financial sectors, the Belt and Road Project, and have also signed numerous deals across several areas. The other Asian country UAE almost has 'brotherly' ties with China. Successive visits by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Vice President Wang Qishan elevated China-UAE relations to a new height. The UAE is also a strong supporter of the Belt and Road Project.
In South America, Argentina has been virtually provided with a leased line by China to the tune of $18 billion to help its dwindling forex reserves. This has made the two countries reshape their relationship. Egypt has always been very close to China. Recently, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said, “Egypt will continue its firm adherence to the one-China principle and resolutely oppose any external forces to interfere in China's internal affairs. Egypt and China have achieved fruitful results in jointly advancing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Egypt welcomes more Chinese enterprises to invest and set up businesses in the country.” On the other hand, the other African nation Ethiopia was virtually saved from US sanctions by China. China has thereafter made Ethiopia a major manufacturing hub for its companies. According to data from the China-Africa Research Initiative, Chinese loans to Ethiopia amounted to a total of 13.729 billion USD from 2000 to 2019.
Though the relationship of all these six nations with India is friendly, these nations seem to be comfortable peddling the Chinese agenda and are more or less at ease with its 'One China' ideology. All of them support the One Belt One Road project and also have exclusive ties with China. So, has India unknowingly supported the Chinese agenda of creating a Chinese-led group that counterbalances the influence of the West?
How does the expansion of the BRICS help India? The importance of BRICS is likely to increase in the years to come since it already constitutes 40% of the world's population and 25% of the global GDP. China is using this fact to give support to its sagging economy. Is India already at the threshold of exploiting its demographic dividend and making that expansion add to its geopolitical and economic might? Our young population is our strength, but have we reached a stage where we can exploit this to make our manufacturing sector better than China and then leverage this expansion of BRICS to our advantage? Perhaps, that may be the case, but the answer to these questions should be pondered over at the highest level of India’s foreign ministry, for the answers to these questions will determine the future of BRICS.
It is no secret that India's relationship with China has been at a low ebb after the Galwan clash. In such a scenario, India needs to be cautious and calculative of any major structural change in common forums with China. It is also a fact that China has a much bigger economy than India, with their GDP being almost five times more. China at present also contributes towards 28% of global manufacturing whereas India contributes around 4%, China wants to use this headstart and leverage this expansion to further its economic domination.
All the six nations added to BRICS are strategically located to boost trade routes, and all of them have important seaports. These ports are strategically important for trade and also for Naval use. It is also established that China has the largest Navy and maritime fleet in the world and hence is in a better position to exploit these ports to boost its trade and geo-political expansion.
Therefore, adding six countries that share close relationships with China in BRICS needs to be further evaluated from a strategic and economic point of view. India needs to be cautious, for it should not fall into the trap of being put under pressure to be a part of the 'One Belt One Road' Project in the future. China's decoupling from the West is making it bend backwards to accommodate new partners in Asia, Africa and South America, however, India must try and bring countries like Singapore and South Korea into the folds of BRICS. We should also make sure BRICS is not used as a geopolitical tool by China in the future. We should ensure that important trade routes by sea should not become a hegemony of a particular country in the future and BRICS is not used as a tool to do that.
