Global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of future drought in several global regions, adversely affecting the water resource, agriculture, and energy sectors, as per a study by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES).
“Given that the current water management practices and existing infrastructures in these sectors are based on historical statistics or experiences, under a changing climate, these practices and infrastructures may eventually become insufficient. “Therefore, it is critical to better understand when severe drought conditions expressed as “unprecedented” will become frequent,” said the study. The projected impacts of warming show significant regional disparities in their intensity and the pace of their growth over time,” said the corresponding lead author Yusuke Satoh, a research associate professor at Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology. “Regarding precipitation and temperature, preceding studies report the timing at which the impact of climate change emerges.
However, no study had successfully estimated the timing in terms of drought focusing on river discharge at a global scale,” added Tokuta Yokohata, a coauthor and a Chief Senior Researcher of the Earth System Risk Analysis Section at the Earth System Division, NIES. “A temporal evaluation about future drought conditions in comparison to our historical experiences is essential to take appropriate climate change strategies, especially for climate adaptations, in the long term and in time.”
The paper published in Nature Communications estimates the periods when drought conditions will shift to an unprecedented state in a warmer world. The research group evaluated changes in drought day frequency for 59 global subcontinental regions until the end of the 21st century. They estimated the time of first emergence (TFE) of consecutive unprecedented drought, which is the first onset of exceedance beyond the maximum bound of the historical climate variability during the reference period (1865-2005) that occurs consecutively for a certain number of years.
“Appropriate and feasible climate mitigation and adaptation plans are essential for overcoming the expected extraordinarily severe dry conditions. Particularly regarding adaptation, it is crucial to improve our preparedness in the given time horizon before unprecedented drought conditions emerge,” said Satoh.
