As the US forces finally leave the landlocked country, various stakeholders with vested interests are keeping a hawk-eye on the developments there
Until August 15, 1947, Afghanistan was a neighbour with whom India always had close economic, social and cultural relations. However, Partition and the emergence of Pakistan changed India’s foreign, defence and trade equations with Afghanistan. Landlocked Afghanistan is surrounded by Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and a narrow border with China. Most of these countries are theocratic and follow Islam. Therefore, fundamentalist Islamic organisations have potential room to micro-manage affairs in Afghanistan and make it a terror breeding ground. In other words, economic development, political stability and peace in Afghanistan essentially depend on how peaceful its neighbours are? So, any change in Afghanistan will have cumulative effects on the Indo-Afghan relations and neighbourhood.
For instance, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 2021 has prompted many countries in Asia, including India, to reconsider their foreign and strategic policies. This raises a question: Who will fill the post-US strategic vacuum in Afghanistan? Fears are expressed that Afghanistan may fall victim to radical Islamic groups like Taliban as they have intensified their activities since the US announcement. Even the UN representatives in Afghanistan expressed concern that the Taliban have taken control of larger northern Afghanistan. As the world has taken note of this fear, so has India; New Delhi is aware that the beginning of a change in the political system and power in Afghanistan will neither be easy nor viable to its interests. Hence, a few high-profile Indian officials met the Taliban representatives in Doha a few weeks back. The details are yet to appear in public domain.
Due to the strategic and cultural connect with Afghanistan, India has invested billions of rupees in Afghanistan and deployed skilled and unskilled Indian workforce who can contribute to its civil society. However, as compared to India, Pakistan being a buffer between India and Afghanistan and an immediate neighbour has much more influence in Afghanistan’s socio-religious, cultural and economic life. It’s not only because of the religious identity but due to the proximity of the Pak-Afghan border which is dependent on illicit economic dealings by Afghan refugees and migrants living in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s political position is always in the favour of Taliban regimes in Afghanistan. In such circumstances, Pakistan may look for opportunity in Afghanistan to advance its engagements in anti-Indian activities and contest India’s presence in Afghanistan.
China, too, is in a hurry to pursue its strategic interests in Afghanistan and strengthen its base. By supplying free vaccines to Afghanistan similar to its global lure, China has already begun to expand its wings. However, its intentions in Afghanistan are to incite Indian or American-style thinking; yet it continues to be an expansionist power. At the same time, China’s worry is that the underground activities led by the Uyghur militants who live along the Afghan-Pakistan border should not receive financial and emotional support from Afghanistan to revolt against China. If the Pakistan-Afghanistan alliance exacerbates the Uyghur Muslim problem, it could irritate China. Therefore, China will never welcome a Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Russia, who is well aware of enormous economic and strategic losses in Afghanistan during the Cold War period (1979-1989) has been cautious in its reaction.
Dent of Decades: To bemoan terror acts of the Taliban and other such organisations, US troops have been stationed in Afghanistan since 2001 to maintain strategic dominance. After 20 years, they too are being forced to withdraw from Afghanistan, considering the loss of millions of lives and monetary dent to the US economy. Local politics in the US began to have repercussions in the form of voices against such deployments. In the last five years, the whole political establishment seemed to have stood divided on Afghanistan.
With the US troops withdrawing, the risks of stability increase manifold. Meanwhile, if anyone has taken advantage of the situation in Afghanistan, it is the Taliban. In the ensuing skirmish with Afghan forces, they also overpowered the Afghan forces. This will surely hamper the Afghan peace process. However, no one can say how many such incidents Afghanistan will have to face in the days to come.
Options for India: In view of the precarious situation in Afghanistan, India needs to protect its investments and prioritise the protection of the lives on the ground. There is an opportunity for India to prove itself as a reliable friend for South Asian neighbours. However, only time will tell which country has the courage to penetrate the turbulent desert of Afghanistan. Still, there is too much need for efforts to build peace for others, including India.
The British likened Afghanistan to a “Graveyard of Empires”; even today, that analogy is meaningful. From the Mughals to major powers like Britain, erstwhile Soviet Union and America, they tried to dominate here, tried their best but there was no success. Afghanistan’s landlocked topography surrounded by Islamic countries has always favoured Afghanistan in crises. Thus, getting into Afghanistan is much easier than coming out of it. It is almost one-way entry, and exit is not possible without sacrifice, compromise or surrender. It is a chakravyuh!
(The author is Director, the School of International Relations and Strategic Studies, and Dean Humanities, University of Mumbai. The views expressed are personal.)
