India’s strategic response to Beijing has to be two-pronged if we desire lasting peace. We need a strong military and a political will to be proactive to exploit Chinese vulnerabilities

Despite the ongoing talks to resolve the military impasse in Eastern Ladakh, incursions and aggressiveness by China continue on the borders. Close on the heels of the revelation of construction of a village in the disputed territory in the Upper Subansiri District of Arunachal Pradesh came the news of Chinese incursion in Naku La in North Sikkim. Consequently, relations between the two nations are deteriorating by the day, with chances of a confrontation on the border likely once the snow melts. India needs to prepare herself militarily, politically and diplomatically to halt Chinese expansionism, a product of its “Middle Kingdom Complex” that is being pursued vigorously by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under the garb of the “China Dream” of its paramount leader Xi Jinping.

Ever since the emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Indian leadership beginning with Pandit Nehru desired to have friendly ties with Beijing in the hope that it would contribute towards world peace, oppose colonialism and form the pillars of a Pan-Asian order. India was among the first few nations to establish diplomatic ties with the PRC on April 1, 1950. Nehru had introduced China for the first time in the global arena during the first-ever multinational Afro-Asian Conference at Bandung in 1955. India was instrumental in getting China the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Unfortunately, Nehru failed to read Chairman Mao’s mind which was filled with Sinocentrism and Chinese nationalism focused on a modern powerful Chinese nation. Mao’s ideology manifested itself in the form of China emerging on the world scene as a “Revisionist” power aiming to change the existing status quo. It resulted in annexation of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet. Subsequently, India also became a victim of Chinese expansionism.

Chinese greed showed no signs of subsiding. Apart from its adventurism in the South and East China Seas, it has been steadily extending its claim lines across Ladakh to include Indian territories, while repudiating India’s sovereignty over Arunachal. Of late, it has included Sikkim also in its growing lists of disputes with India.

New Delhi has decided to contest Chinese revisionism and expansionism. It has refused to give in to Xi’s machinations, for which it has received considerable global support. India needs to strategise to exploit China’s many vulnerabilities. The CCP is, however, very sensitive to the two “Ts” namely Taiwan and Tibet. As a consequence of civil war in China, the nation was divided into two parts in 1949 two years after India attained Independence. Mao’s communist Government retained control of mainland China forcing the Republic of China (ROC) Government to relocate to Taiwan. Since then, the ROC has continued to exercise effective jurisdiction over the main island of Taiwan and a number of outlying islands while the PRC continues to claim it as its 23rd province.

China’s official position on Taiwan is uncompromising. It claims that Taiwan is, was and always has been an inseparable part of China, and that international law supports Beijing’s claim. The CCP wants outright reunification, the sooner the better, seeing the recovery of the island as the final chapter in the civil war and end of past humiliations when China was forced to cede territory to foreigners.

On the other hand, there is a growing global support for Taiwan as it is viewed as a victim of growing Chinese expansionism that wants to impose the communist ideology on a democratic nation.

The other Achilles heel of CCP is Tibet, the region that shares border with India and has had historic ties with India. With the end of the Chinese Civil War, the newly-established communist regime openly stated its intention of “liberating” Tibet, but India paid no heed.

To maintain control over Tibet, the PLA entered Tibet on October 7, 1950, and subsequently annexed it, thus eliminating the traditional buffer between India and China. India committed a big  folly in 1954 when, under the Panchsheel Agreement, we surrendered in Tibet all our military and other facilities to China.  Chinese responded with attacking an Assam Rifles outpost in Longju in the Central Frontier of erstwhile North East Frontier Agency (now Arunachal) and building a road through Indian territory of Aksai Chin in Ladakh. Nehru still did not realise the gravity of the situation till China backstabbed India in 1962.

Had Tibet not been forcibly annexed by PRC there would have been no boundary dispute on our northern borders.

The PRC on assuming power renounced all earlier foreign agreements as unequal treatises imposed on it during the ‘century of humiliation’ and demanded renegotiation of all borders.

Chinese obsession with Tibet stems from many reasons, one of them being to fulfil Mao’s revisionist dream of Five Fingers. Mao believes Tibet to be the palm of China’s right hand, with Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal as its five fingers which also need to be “liberated” contrary to Indian claims.

Tibet is Beijing’s fundamental vulnerability vis-a-vis India and a mechanism available to the latter to restrain China. New Delhi made the cardinal mistake of accepting the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) as part of China, thus permitting the Dragon to share a border with India. China time and again defied India’s hopes of a peaceful co-existence through its acts of treachery by showing scant respect for mutual treaties and international conventions. The time has come to junk the One Nation policy of China by paying it back in the same coin. India needs to derecognise Tibet as part of China and recognise Taiwan as an independent nation. To begin with, India needs to enhance commerce and cultural relations with Taiwan and increase military cooperation.

To ensure Hans supremacy, the CCP has been subjecting the other ethnic minorities to suppression and subjugation. There is growing unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang against increased Chinese atrocities. China also plans to change the demographics along the Sino-Indian border through the establishment of Hans populated villages. To counter this, India should give up its timid Tibet policy, assist the resistance movement within Tibet and give a free hand to the Dalai Lama and his Government to espouse the cause of freedom from Indian soil. It should also draw global attention to increased human right violations inside Tibet.

In all fairness, the mistake committed by India during the NDA regime under Atal Bihari Vajpayee should be corrected by the Narendra Modi-led NDA before it is too late. India should shed all apprehensions and play its trump card: Tibet, against China.

While Taiwan and Tibet should form two main pillars of India’s strategic response to the Dragon’s treachery, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia should also remain on its radar. Tibet and Xinjiang are China’s two largest provinces. Without them, the total land area of China would be reduced by over 30 per cent. India should also invest heavily in improving and maintaining good relations with peripheral nations of SCS as well as the nations in Indo-Pacific region. Strengthening the Quad into an alliance has become a strategic necessity to checkmate Xi’s ambition to become the world’s most powerful leader. Our strategic response to Beijing has to be two-pronged if we desire lasting peace with China. In keeping with the maxim, “If you want peace, be prepared for war,” a strong military to defend ourselves is the foremost change needed, coupled with a political will to be proactive to exploit Chinese vulnerabilities and let Beijing respond to our moves rather than the other way round.

The writer is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. The views expressed are personal.