The hostility between the US and China is steadily increasing and this is bound to have an effect on the ruling Pakistani establishment

Pakistan is in the throes of turmoil right now. However, despite all the rallies and hue and cry created by the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), it is unlikely to be of much consequence. For the uninitiated, the PDM was formed in September by the leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Fazal-ur-Rehman, but constitutes 11 parties, representing nearly the entire political spectrum of Pakistan. Significantly, the PDM has brought together the two mainstream but rival parties, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by the exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, but currently headed by his daughter Maryam.

No doubt Pakistan is facing a severe economic crisis because of which people are suffering. Prices of essential commodities like food and medicines have gone through the roof and there is mounting unemployment. However, despite these, the people of Pakistan are unlikely to give much support to the PDM as it is an unholy alliance of corrupt leaders. While Nawaz Sharif was mentioned in the Panama Papers, his daughter Maryam has been accused of having four huge flats in England by Prime Minister Imran Khan. Then there is Bilawal whose mother Benazir allegedly took huge amounts of money abroad and Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, the Rasputin of Pakistan and a rank opportunist, to name a few. These politicians have no real love for the people of Pakistan but are a disgruntled, motley lot having nothing in common. In fact earlier, for years they had been at each other’s throats but now they have united because they are out of power and not enjoying the loaves of office.

As anticipated, Nawaz Sharif’s attack from London in his online speech in the PDM rally in Gujranwala against General Bajwa and some other top military brass — probably thinking that this would divide the Pakistani Generals and provoke some to stage a coup against the Army chief — did not have any effect. An army, by its very nature, is different from a mob. It is a highly-disciplined organisation, with a hierarchy and chain of command. Each person on a lower rank unquestioningly carries out the orders of his superior. The army chief is at the top of this hierarchy and the corps commanders, even if they sometimes disagree with him, will ultimately carry out his orders. They know that breach of this discipline destroys an army, and therefore themselves. So there will be no coup in the Pakistan Army, whatever Nawaz Sharif may think. The Pakistan Army officers are fiercely protective of their Generals, both serving and retired, and will not tolerate their humiliation, because they know if this happens one day they, too, may meet a similar fate. In fact, it is probably because Nawaz Sharif started hounding General Musharraf that the Pakistan Army turned on him.

The essence of a State is its military and bureaucratic establishment. In Pakistan, the army is the real power, though it prefers to shield and screen itself behind the veneer of a civil Government, as that gives it power without responsibility. Imran Khan is clever enough to realise this, and as long as he keeps the army happy (which he is doing with great alacrity) he is safe. To think that a mob can fight and disperse an army, even if a hundred times smaller in number, is unrealistic and silly. It reminds one of Vendemiaire in Paris in October 1795, when 4,000 troops under Brigadier General Napoleon Bonaparte dispersed a mob numerically 10 times larger by “a whiff of grapeshot.” So all the PDM’s horses and all the PDM’s men cannot have any effect on the Pakistan ruling establishment, however many rallies they may hold. However, there is one factor which can have an effect, and it is this which needs to be considered.

Earlier, Pakistan was pro-US and was closely tied to it, economically and militarily. But now it has also become close to China, which has emerged as the second superpower in the world. China has closer proximity to Pakistan and has hugely invested in it. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor has forged a strong link between the two countries. The Chinese are taking away huge amounts of raw materials from Balochistan. Gwadar Port has been given on a 40-year lease to China and Pakistani markets are full of cheap Chinese goods. So Pakistan, which earlier had only one master, now has two. It is well-known that the hostility between these two, the US and China, is steadily increasing, and this is bound to have an effect on the ruling Pakistani establishment, which may well be torn apart, one part siding with the US and the other with China.

Mere discontent among the Pakistani people, over rising prices, unemployment and so on, by itself is unlikely to cause an overthrow of the rulers. But if coupled with, and supported by one of the two masters mentioned above (which may feel threatened by the other’s ascendancy), this may well happen in the long run, caused by a fissure in Pakistan’s ruling establishment. Interesting times are ahead in our neighbouring nation.

     (The writer is former Judge of the Supreme Court of India)