The logic of history backs the BJP in Himachal Pradesh going by the fact the hill State has only once returned an incumbent Government. The debate here is not about the outcome, but on whether both upper and lower regions of the State will vote the same way. And that is where the largest of the 15 districts in the State, Kangra, with 15 assembly seats, is expected to play a key role in tilting the poll balance.

Both the BJP and the Congress are mindful of the “Kangra factor” that kept the BJP out of power in 2012 by giving the Congress 10 out of the 15 seats from the district. The BJP won just three of those seats.

The upper Himachal — Shimla, lahaul Spiti, and Kinnaur — has traditionally been the Congress strongholds, while the lower Himachal comprising Hamirpur, Bilaspur, Chamba, Kangra and Una have been BJP’s strongholds. The lower Himachal has bulk of Assembly seats —  46 out of the 68 constituencies. There is also an indication that voters of upper and lower

Himachal Pradesh may, to an extent, this time switch their party preferences.

Kangra has turned out to be the focal point of BJP’s election campaign in the State with all factional leaders, including former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar (Kangra MP) from the region seemed to have thrown their weight behind party’s Chief Ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal. The BJP CM candidate has said that party president Amit Shah has sent in “strong message” to end in-fighting in the party as his own efforts to end factional feud has also borne fruit.

Besides Kangra, Mandi with 10 and Shimla with eight Assembly segments are among the 12 districts of the State that may have decisive impact on the poll results.

As one travels from Una, Hamripur, Kangra to Daharmshala, the Congress campaign is hardly visible, whereas the BJP is going all out with its slogans “Aabki bar 60 ke par” and “Abki bar BJP sarkar”.  

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a string of public rallies in the State last week, the last being in Una, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi moved in on Monday when he addressed public meetings at Sirmour, Chamba and Kangra.

There are several instances where candidates contesting on the Congress tickets have a BJP past or vice-versa. At Kangra, sitting MlA Pawan Kajal, a builder by profession, is a former BJP man, while the BJP candidate Sanjay Choudhury is former Congressman. Kajal had won on as an independent candidate as he was not allotted Congress ticket last time. “There are estimated 70,000 voters in Kangra, the seat was lost by the BJP four times and they will lose it again,” said Anup Kumar, a supporter of the Congress candidate.

At Dehra segment, Viplav Thakur, Rajya Sabha member, is a Congress candidate taking on BJP’s Ravinder Singh (sitting MlA) with an independent candidate Hoshiar Singh too in the fray. “Formerly in the BJP, Hoshiar Singh, who is popular, may cut in BJP votes,” says Anshul Sharma, a professional marketing animal feed.

However, it is a BJP bastion as party’s Ravinder Singh had won the election in 2012 by a massive margin. The Congress was in the third position, while an independent candidate was the runner-up.

Interestingly, the taint of corruption has seemingly not diluted the acceptability of Virbhandra Singh with the hill populace. 

Asked about BJP’s charges of conversions of Hindus in Kerala and West Bengal, Kulwant Singh, a Rajput in Una, says, “The polarising issues would benefit the BJP. Demonetisation, Goods and Services Tax (GST), and rising prices are being talked about but unemployment seems to be in the top of the mind of most of the voters.”

There are over three lakh State Government employees, who could impact poll results in the urban Assembly seats. The Congress Government has not fulfilled their demand for an upward wage revision.

As two senior citizens Virbhadra Singh, 83, and Dhumal, 73, both Rajputs, cross swords, caste equations in the State could also play vital roles in the State with over 70 lakh population and estimated 49 lakh voters. There are 34 per cent Thakurs, 25 per cent Dalits, 18 per cent OBC and 18 to 20 per cent Brahmin and Bania. “Candidate selection could be important for the parties as an in an election where there is no visible wave, local considerations could sway votes to either side,” says Sharma at Dehra Assembly segment.