If news reports of Moscow’s keenness to join China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and its willingness to bury the hatchet with ‘epicentre of radicalism’ Pakistan are true, it is a bad omen for South Asia and Eurasian regions
The year 2016 ended with a sobering note as far as the Asian security situation is concerned. Growing crisis in the South China Sea, fragile political situation in Afghanistan, tenuous peace in Central Asia, Syrian conflict, and above all China-Russia strategic interactions defined
the strategic cord of Asian security structure.
The China-Russia bonhomie, which has taken the momentum now after 1994, is not confining itself to strategic partnership alone but in recent years these two powers are trying to use this solidarity to checkmate emergence of other Asian powers in the Asian continent. Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a good example of this. Despite having a much better relationship with India, Russia toed the Chinese line in preventing India’s membership in the SCO. Similarly, it has covertly blocked India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This signifies the overt and covert attempts being made by Chinese policy makers in thwarting India’s attempt to play a greater role in the Asian/Eurasian subcontinent.
Chinese objective of expanding the age-old strategic doctrine of “Middle Kingdom Complex” to the heart of Asian security discourses can have a deeper impact on security of Asia. What Russia, a Eurasian power, is doing is facilitating China’s grand entry into both the Asian and Eurasian regions despite sharing an uneasy relationship in the past. What is worrisome for Asian security structure in general, and Eurasian security in particular, is that Pakistan, a failed State, has also been roped in by these two powers in creating the “unholy alliance”.
The strategic bonhomie between Russia and China is not confined merely to Central Asia, it is now extending to South and East Asia. The expanding presence of China in Asia is being facilitated by its Belt & Road initiatives, which the Chinese policy makers are giving a normative dimension by eulogising the ancient Silk Road. How far this kind of strategic doctrine under the grab of expanding infrastructural connectivity will shape the Asian security discoursesIJ This may jeopardise the incipient stability in Asia in the long run.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), inaugurated in November 2016, is a perfect example of this policy of China. There are murmurs that Russia is going to join the corridor. This in turn generated a lot of apprehensions in strategic circles that Russia is going to ally with Pakistan, a country the policy makers in Moscow used to call “epicentre of radicalism”. The official Russian media Pravda.Ru in a report dated September 30, 2016, highlighted the growing rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan. One may underline here that this is not for the first time Russia and Pakistan are involved in joint military exercises. Even in 2014 and 2015, both the countries conducted two maritime exercises in the “Arabian Sea”. Russia’s mischievous intention of aligning with Pakistan was highlighted by a Russian strategic expert on South Asia, Petr Topychkanov, an analyst from Carnegie Moscow. Topychkanov, in an interesting article titled, “Deep military cooperation between Russia and Pakistan threatens Delhi” which was published by Russia Direct, dated October 11, 2016, posed a direct question to the Russian policy makers, i.e, “How can Moscow assure Delhi that the Armed Forces of Pakistan will not use the fruits of military cooperation with Russia against IndiaIJ” The question raised by the Russian scholar is quite pertinent if one looks at Pakistan’s aggressive strategic behaviour in recent years towards India. In addition to joint military exercises conducted jointly by Russia and Pakistan in the vicinity of Indian border, the Pakistani media is quite hyperbolic in recent months that Russia is keen to join the Chinese- sponsored CPEC project.
Russian Foreign Ministry officials consistently denied the news reports saying that Moscow is not going to have any kind of cooperation with Pakistan and is not mulling to join the Chinese initiated CPEC project. However, if one glances through some of the news reports coming from Pakistan it shows that Russia is keen to secure a space for itself in the much-hyped Gwadar port built with the Chinese assistance. Even Russian official newspaper Sputnik on November 26, 2016, acknowledged the fact that Russia seeks to use the Gwadar port and is showing its keenness to join the CPEC project.
If Russia joins the CPEC, it will not have any impact on India. However, if Moscow gives the logic that it is joining as a reaction of New Delhi’s growing rapprochement with Washington, it will really impact India. Despite deeper Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation, India has not voiced its concern ever. Similarly the growing cooperation between New Delhi and Washington is in no way directed against Moscow. Also, India and the USA have not conducted any military exercises in the bordering regions of Russia. India stood with Russia when it faced backlash in the international forums because of latter’s action in Crimea. On the other hand, Russia, despite being a civilisational as well as strategic partner of India, is deviating from its commitment to strategic partnership agreement. Russia is hobnobbing with Pakistan, despite the fact that it is facing the heat from radicalist forces. Both the policy makers and academics from Russia consistently raised their voice against the dubious role being played by Pakistan in fermenting troubles both in Central and South Asia, as well supporting Chechen radicals. To an utter surprise if news reports are true in recent years, Moscow is also mending fences with the Taliban forces in the name of bringing stability to war-torn Afghanistan. Similarly, China, despite its own problem in its North-West Frontier province of Xinjiang, is supporting well-known international terrorist like Masood Azhar. A few years back China accused Pakistan of abetting terrorism in Xinjiang by providing support to the radicals. However in recent years Beijing took a U-turn on the issue of terrorism and is supporting Pakistan’s evil design.
All these developments are going to have deeper repercussions on the fragile security structure of Asia. Russia being one of the founders of International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project should take steps to revitalise the project. In this regard, India, along with Iran, can augment the infrastructural linkages in the Asian/Eurasian continent. The INSTC project has much better prospects than the CPEC.
What Russian foreign policy demonstrates over the years is that it is supporting China’s imperial project in the Asian continent. CPEC and One Belt and One Road Initiative are part of this project. Similarly, Russia’s strategic interaction with Pakistan will give a wrong signal to fight against international terrorism. Russia should absolve itself from the ad hock foreign policy it is pursuing in recent years. Moreover, its engagement with Taliban, following in China’s footsteps, is a dangerous trend in the Asian security.
Peace and stability in Asia can be possible if China gives up its expansionist policy and support international coalition against radicalism. Russia, being a responsible Eurasian power, should also understand fragile security environment of Central Asia, Afghanistan, etc. If Moscow pursues a policy of aligning with both Pakistan and non-State actor like Taliban along with China’s policy of containing India to achieve some short-term goals, then it will have a deeper repercussion of Asian security. Analysts are of the opinion that by aligning with China, Russia is becoming a “Middle Power” in the global security structure.
Russia, despite being a Eurasian state, has a deeper interest in the Asian security structure because of its location. The way it is aligning with China, also in the South China Sea region, is generating dissonance from countries like Vietnam, with whom it shares a deeper relationship. Though it is mending fences with Japan, there is not so much warmth in the relationship between these two States.
It is in this context India, being an emerging power of Asia (both economically and strategically), can play a positive role in stabilising the security situation in Asia, with cooperation from Vietnam, Japan, Afghanistan, Central Asian States, and of course along with Russia. However, Russia has to change its foreign policy stand first.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, CRCAS, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
