It could be an irony of political fate for the Congress, which claims to be the oldest party in the country with the legacy of leading the Independence struggle and to have roots and branches all over India, to bank on tiny Kerala with just 20 seats to win the largest number of seats from one State in the 16th lok Sabha elections.
This dream of the Congress had seemed to be a possibility till a few days ago but even Congressmen now agree that the situation has changed. Survey agencies which predicted the ruling UDF, led by the Congress, to win up to 18 of the 20 seats early March are now correcting themselves to say that the UDF and CPI(M)-led lDF are presently in a neck-and-neck race.
However, poll analysts tend to give a slight edge even now to the Congress and the UDF in the election — for which polling has been held in Kerala on April 10 — despite the several negative factors like the inevitable anti-incumbency sentiment, solar scam, land scams pertaining to Chief Minister Chandy’s aides and the Congress’s frailty at the national level.
One of the reasons for this minute pro-UDF leaning of the Kerala electorate is obviously the inefficiency of the left to keep its house in order and not any advantage of the UDF itself, analysts say. “Also Kerala has the peculiarity of thinking tomorrow what the nation thinks today,” according to journalist Jayakumar.
He is not totally wrong. When the entire country voted against the Congress in the post-Emergency election of March, 1977, the people of Kerala, who always boast about their high political awareness, have stood by that party. The result was that the Congress bagged all the eleven seats it contested and the front it led swept the polls.
The 1977 Assembly election also produced similar result. The Congress-led front under the direction of leader K Karunakaran bagged 111 of the total 140 Assembly seats while the CPI(M)-led coalition was reduced to a mere 21 seats. However, the Kerala electorate somewhat reversed its decision in the lok Sabha and Assembly elections held in 1980.
Opinion polls suggest that at least two of the six Union Ministers (KC Venugopal and Mullappally Ramachandran) the UDF has fielded in this election may lose their sitting seats. Similar fate may hit two of the four former State ministers of the UDF contesting this election. Reports suggest that even Shashi Tharoor is batting on a shaky wicket in Thiruvananthapuram.
However, the Congress hoped that the situation would further improve after the top leaders like party president Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi visit the State. Rahul spoke at many rallies in Kerala while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Sonia also visited the State .
“The pro-UDF trend was very much there till two weeks ago but the entry of Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan into the poll arena as the left’s chief campaigner and the gradual realisation that dawned on the electorate about the pathetic situation of the Congress nationally have badly hit the UDF since then,” says poll analyst Ravi S of Idukki.
Still, Ravi says, the UDF may win 11 to 13 seats out of the total 20. “I think it is not the positive aspects concerning the UDF are giving this slight edge to it but the shortcomings of the left are responsible for this. The left has not been able to field good candidates even in the key constituencies,” he adds.
