Unlike in other regions of Maharashtra, the BJP goes to the October 15 Assembly polls as a clear favourite in Vidarbha and north-Maharashtra (known locally as Khandesh) regions, where it performed exceedingly well in the 2014 lok Sabha polls and has very good organisational base to retain its hold over the two regions.

With as many as 86 seats at stake in Vidarbha and Khandesh regions, the BJP hopes to consolidate on its lok Sabha poll performance and walk away with a lion’s share of seats from two regions where all its opponents —excepting the Shiv Sena which has base in 20-odd Assembly segments — are now relatively very weak.

Having won the six seats out of 10 lok Sabha seats in Vidarbha (the remaining four seats were bagged by its erstwhile alliance partner Shiv Sena) in the 2014 polls and established leads as many as 35 Assembly segments in the same election, the BJP is gung ho about not just repeating its performance but also bagging more than 40 seats (out of the total 62 seats) from this eastern Maharashtra region alone.  Its confidence stems from the fact that the it has  a wide and well-entrenched organisational base to convert its lok Sabha poll performance as also an aggressive campaign carried out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party’s senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis — into Assembly seats.

While Modi created quite an impact at his various public rallies that he addressed in the region, Gadkari and Fadnavis — both of whom are among chief ministerial contenders in the event of their party coming power in the State — have covered the length and breadth of the Vidarbha region during their campaign. Between the two senior leaders from the State, 44-year-old Fadnavis stands a better chance of making it to the Chief Minister’s post. That Fadnavis enjoys the confidence of the central BJP leadership can be evidenced from the fact that Modi — at his Nagpur rally on October 7, heaped praise on him, describing him as the “Nagpur’s gift to Maharashtra”.

Though Vidarbha was long a stronghold of the Congress, its base has shrunk over the past few elections. On their part, the local BJP have widened their support base among the voters by promising a separate statehood for Vidarbha over the past few years. In the current Assembly polls, the BJP adopted a “running with the hare and hunting with hounds” policy as it reached out to the people of Vidarbha on one hand and their counterparts elsewhere in the State on the other. 

While the local leaders all through their electioneering for the Assembly polls went out of the away to promise a separate statehood for Vidarbha, Modi categorically ruled out such a possibility, by saying that as long as he was the Prime Minister, no force on earth could divide Maharashtra.  Notwithstanding the categorical assertion to the contrary made by the Prime Minister, the local BJP leaders have effectively exploited the separate Vidarbha statehood plank in their campaign.

While the BJP has its own sizeable support base in more than half of the 62 Assembly segments, the party hopes to split the Shiv Sena votes in its favour in the 22 Assembly segments where the Sena had established leads in the 2014 lok Sabha polls. Sadly enough, the erstwhile ruling Congress and NCP established leads in mere two Assembly segments each in the entire region.

Apart from consolidating its own base, what the BJP did in the run to the Assembly polls was to poach influential candidates from the Congress and NCP into its fold. At least 10 such potential “imported” candidates are contesting as the BJP nominees in the polls.

The prize catch the BJP landed hours before the closure of nomination was that of Maharashtra‘s current Environment Minister and four-time MlA Sanjay Deotale. Deotale, who had been denied ticket by the Congress, switched sides at the last minute and filed his nomination on behalf of the BJP from Warora constituency in Chandrapur district in eastern Maharashtra. (The Congress had replaced Deotale with his cousin Vijay’s wife Dr Assawari Vijay Deotale on the ground that he had lost the 2014 polls to BJP’s Hansraj Ahir from Chandrapur constituency by a massive margin of 2.3 lakh votes).

Similarly, the BJP also roped in the Congress’ former minister Dr Sunil Deshmukh to its camp. Deshmukh, who had successfully contested from Amravati constituency for terms (1999 and 2004) on a Congress ticket but was denied ticket in the 2009 to accommodate the then President Pratibha Patil’s son Raosaheb Shekawat, has joined the BJP. The BJP has fielded Deshmukh against Congress’ sitting MlA Raosaheb.

There are as many as six ministers, including Deotale, Shivajirao Moghe, Nitin Raut and Anil Deshmukh, from the erstwhile DF cabinet are re-contesting the polls. Given the severe anti-incumbency faced by both the Congress and the NCP — which are contesting the polls independently, a majority of the ministers — save Deotale who is now contesting as a BJP candidate —might bite dust in the polls.

While the BJP has reasons to be confident about its prospects in Vidarbha region, the party is equally well placed in the neighbouring Khandesh region where it is well-entrenched in all the three districts of Jalgaon, Dhule and Nandurbar which together account for four lok Sabha seats and 24 Assembly segments.

In Khandesh, the BJP’s senior leader Eknath Khade – the party’s another chief ministerial candidate who is a major force to reckon with in the region — micro-managed the party’s campaign in the 2014 lok Sabha which saw the party bag all the four parliamentary seats (Jalgaon, Raver, Dhule and Nandurbar) and establish leads in 22 out of the total 24 Assembly segments.

Even in the current Assembly poll campaign that saw Modi address a huge rally in the predominately tribal district of Dhule, the BJP has reached out to the voters in a big way in a region that was once the traditional stronghold of the Congress.

In Muktainagar Assembly constituency, Khadse, the sitting MlA, is seeking re-election. A five-time MlA and former leader of the Opposition in the Maharashtra Assembly, Khadse is taking on NCP's Arun Patil, Chandrakant Patil of Shiv Sena and Yogendra Patil of Congress.

Jalgaon’s strongman Sureshdada Jain of the Shiv Sena (Jalgaon city) and NCP's Gulabrao Devkar are re-contesting the Jalogaon city and rural seats from the jail. Jain and Devkar, both are former ministers, are behind the bars in connection with a multi-crore housing scam in Jalgaon.