Buoyed by the encouraging result in 2012 Assembly elections — the Congress has fielded its one of the most powerful leaders — Shankersinh Vaghela from Sabarkantha constituency in North Gujarat.

Vaghela, also known as ‘Bapu’ in political circle, is confident to snatch the tribal influence seat from the BJP and ensure that the Congress continues its good performance in 2014 lok Sabha too.However things are not as simple as Vaghela — the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s bête noire and the leader of Opposition in Gujarat Assembly — thinks.

Knowing that the BJP lost six out of seven Assembly segments in the last Assembly polls, the Gujarat Chief Minister instantly got into a damage control mode.He not only shifted the State level Republic Day celebrations from Jamnagar to Himmatnagar, the headquarters of Sabarkantha district, but also announced a plethora of development projects here.Both the parties have changed their candidate here. The Congress has replaced Madhusudan Mistry, who lost against BJP’s Dr Mahendrasinh Chauhan in 2009 general elections, by the former Gujarat Chief Minister Vaghela. The saffron party has also dropped sitting MP Chauhan and given ticket to sitting MlP from Prantij, Dipsinh Rathod.

In the last lok Sabha elections, Vaghela, the then Union Textile Minister, fought from neighbouring Panchmahal constituency and defeated with a very narrow margin of 2,081 votes. The Congress, however claimed, that the defeat came because the BJP had an alliance with a Muslim candidate latif Abdul Karim — who as an Independent candidate managed to secure 24,000 votes  —which were believed to be the Congress committed votes.

Though he has changed his seat this time to tribal-dominated Sabarkantha, it is almost a repetition of the situation. This time too, yet another Abdul Karim is contesting against him, who is likely to eat the Congress’ votes.However, Vaghela camp claims to have taken all precautions here to avoid yet another disaster for the 73-year-old leader who spent prime time of his political life in the BJP but quit the party on serious differences with Modi in 1998 and later joined the Congress.

“We are alert this time. Our party workers will ensure that all minority votes come to the Congress,” says Vaghela. last time the Muslim candidate from BJP was namesake of Ahmedabad-based don Abdul latif and he took advantage of it to mislead the voters, said a Vaghela supporter adding that the original latif was considered as benevolent leader among minorities.

“During campaign we have started telling people this time that BJP’s dummy candidate has nothing to do with latif,” he added. On Modi wave, Vaghela claims that not only he but at least 15 other Congress candidates would emerge victorious in Gujarat because of “Modi backlash” — in the wake of his (Modi) ‘blatant lies’.The Congress is largely depending on tribal, Kshtriya and minority votes.“The constituency is dominated by Kshatriya community with nearly four lakh votes. But majority of them are OBC  BJP candidate Rathod is also OBC Kshtriya, while ‘Bapu’ is from upper caste Khshtriya. It would give advantage to the saffron party,” says a BJP supporter. Prithviraj Patel, Sabarkantha District BJP president says that Rathod is a local candidate, while Vaghela is an outsider.

Sabarkantha is considered as one of the most backward districts in the State. The Congress has made an issue that there is no development here. Accepting the fact, Patel defends that there are some problems but it is because of the step-motherly treatment of the Centre against Gujarat. “Once Modi will become PM all the problems of not only Sabarkantha but entire country would be solved,” he claimed.

Ahead of the announcement of parliamentary elections, the Congress MlA from Himmatnagar, Rajendrasin Chavda resigned from the party and joined the saffron party and he is now contesting again in assembly bypoll on BJP ticket. Another factor, which is cause of concern for the Congress candidate is BJP’s organizational structure. The contest here is not between BJP and the Congress but it is between ‘Bapu’ who is fighting on his personal strength against the well organised and cadre-based BJP.