Venugopal emerges as key driver as UDF surges ahead in Kerala 2026 polls: Survey

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) appears to have gained a decisive edge in the Kerala Assembly elections, with senior leader KC Venugopal emerging as a central figure shaping the electoral narrative, according to the ‘Poll Mantra’ exit survey.

The survey points to a clear momentum shift in the State, projecting the UDF to secure a comfortable majority with an estimated vote share of 38.5 per cent. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected at 33.4 per cent, while the NDA is expected to retain a stable base at 20.2 per cent.

In terms of seats, the UDF is forecast to win between 88 and 92 seats in the 140-member Assembly—well above the majority mark of 70. The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is projected to see a significant drop, with estimates ranging from 42 to 46 seats.

The survey highlights what it describes as a “structured shift” rather than a simple electoral swing. The UDF is seen dominating the Malabar region while expanding its lead in Central Kerala.

Although Travancore remains competitive, the report suggests it may not be enough to offset the broader Statewide trend. Signs of anti-incumbency against the ruling front are also evident.

Leadership perception appears to have played a crucial role in shaping voter sentiment. Venugopal leads the influence chart with a rating of 21.4 per cent, followed by Vijayan at 18.6 per cent and Opposition Leader VD Satheesan at 16.2 per cent. Other Congress figures, including Shashi Tharoor and Shafi Parambil, are also noted as significant contributors to the UDF’s campaign narrative.
In the race for the chief ministerial preference, Satheesan narrowly leads with 21.2 per cent, just ahead of Vijayan at 20.5 per cent, while Venugopal follows with 17.8 per cent.

The survey also points to a “packed middle” tier in leadership preferences. Leaders such as KK Shailaja, Ramesh Chennithala, and Rajeev Chandrasekhar are each seen garnering support in the 10.5 per cent–11.2 per cent range. 

This suggests that while the UDF benefits from multiple prominent faces, the LDF’s appeal remains largely centered around the incumbent chief minister.