India-China thaw faces its biggest test
Five years after Galwan, a possible Modi-Xi meeting will test whether military disengagement can evolve into diplomatic stability
A potential face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS Summit could signal a significant new chapter in India-China relations, five years after the deadly Galwan Valley confrontation pushed ties between the two countries to their lowest point in decades.
Modi and Xi are expected to hold bilateral talks during the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on September 12, according to the developments surrounding the Chinese president’s visit. If the meeting takes place, it would be the first formal bilateral interaction between the two leaders since the 2020 border crisis.
The proposed talks are being closely watched as New Delhi and Beijing attempt to build on a cautious improvement in relations following years of military standoffs, diplomatic tensions and disruptions to economic ties.
Xi is scheduled to travel to New Delhi for the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit, which India is hosting on September 12 and 13. The visit would be his first trip to India in seven years and his first since the border tensions erupted in 2020.
However, neither India nor China has formally confirmed that Modi and Xi will hold a bilateral meeting. Any such engagement would therefore carry considerable diplomatic significance, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing efforts to stabilize relations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The two leaders most recently appeared together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. They exchanged a handshake during the gathering but did not hold a formal bilateral meeting.
In preparation for Xi’s India visit and amid efforts to maintain high-level communication, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval travelled to China for discussions with senior officials. His visit underlined the importance both sides continue to attach to diplomatic channels despite unresolved differences.
Relations between India and China have shown signs of gradual stabilization following the disengagement of troops from several friction points along the LAC. While significant challenges remain, the reduction in military tensions has created space for renewed diplomatic engagement.
A Modi-Xi meeting in New Delhi could provide an opportunity for both sides to assess the progress made since the border crisis and discuss the broader trajectory of bilateral relations. It could also offer a platform to address outstanding concerns and explore measures aimed at preventing further tensions along the disputed frontier.
With the BRICS Summit bringing together leaders from major emerging economies, the potential meeting is likely to attract significant international attention. For New Delhi and Beijing, the focus will be on whether renewed political engagement can translate into a more durable and predictable relationship.