How the Houthi advance at Bab el-Mandeb could affect India’s oil supply

Yemen’s Houthi forces have reportedly captured Mayun island inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, days after taking the nearby port of Mokha. The development places the Iran-backed group beside a shipping chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. It does not mean the Houthis have closed the strait.

For India, the immediate risk is also not the loss of every crude-oil route. The concern is a second regional chokepoint creating higher costs and fewer alternatives while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

What has happened in Yemen?

Associated Press reports carried on the PTI wire said Houthi forces captured Mayun, also called Perim, on September 11. The island divides Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping channels.

AP attributed confirmation to an unnamed Houthi official and an unnamed senior official from Yemen’s internationally recognised government. The Houthi military statement did not publicly name the island.

The group had taken Mokha, a mainland port around 80 kilometres from the strait, a day earlier. These gains strengthen its position around the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Shipping had already shifted away from the route after Houthi attacks began in late 2023. AP reported that traffic remained about 60 percent below levels recorded before those attacks.

The new territorial position increases the threat to vessels. It does not establish that all commercial traffic has stopped or that the group controls every ship passing through the strait.

Why does Bab el-Mandeb matter?

Ships travelling between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal must also pass Bab el-Mandeb. The alternative route around southern Africa is longer and usually more expensive.

The US Energy Information Administration estimated that eight million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through Bab el-Mandeb daily during the first half of 2025. The EIA said flows had fallen sharply after the earlier attacks. They declined from 8.7 million barrels daily in 2023 to four million during January to August 2024.

A prolonged disruption can increase sailing time, fuel consumption, insurance premiums and freight rates. Those costs can reach importers and consumers even when physical supplies continue arriving.

Does Indian crude pass through the strait?

India imports most of the crude oil it processes. The Union petroleum ministry told the Rajya Sabha in July that import dependence remained around 88 percent during the previous three financial years.

However, 88 percent import dependence does not mean 88 percent of India’s oil passes through Bab el-Mandeb. The route depends on where each cargo originates.

Crude loaded inside the Persian Gulf usually exits through the Strait of Hormuz and crosses the Arabian Sea towards India. It does not normally need to enter the Red Sea.

This includes much of the crude supplied by Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Hormuz is therefore the more direct chokepoint for India’s Gulf supplies.

Bab el-Mandeb matters differently. Russian or Atlantic-basin crude sent through Suez must cross the strait before reaching India. Such cargoes can divert around the Cape of Good Hope at additional cost.

Indian refiners also send petroleum products towards Europe through the Red Sea and Suez. Diversions can reduce export margins and make vessel scheduling more difficult.

Liquefied natural gas from Qatar reaches India through Hormuz rather than Bab el-Mandeb. Atlantic LNG cargoes may use Suez or take the longer route around Africa.

Why does the Saudi pipeline matter?

Saudi Arabia has also shut its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack. Saudi authorities said the drones were launched from Iraq, whose government ordered an investigation.

The pipeline carries crude from Saudi Arabia’s Gulf side to Yanbu on the Red Sea. It provides an alternative export route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz.

But cargoes sailing from Yanbu towards India must travel south through Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthi advance and pipeline shutdown therefore weaken one route that could bypass disruption around Hormuz.

This does not immediately remove Saudi crude from the market. It reduces flexibility during a wider regional conflict, which can place upward pressure on prices and shipping costs.

What has India said?

India condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations on September 9. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said attacks on civilian and economic facilities threatened regional security and freedom of navigation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also raised secure sea lanes at the BRICS Business Forum on September 11. He said global trade required open supply routes and safe seafarers.

Modi did not specifically name Mayun or the latest Houthi advance in that speech.

Why is this relevant to the BRICS summit?

The BRICS summit is being held in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are members of the grouping.

Government sources told PTI that members had reached consensus on a joint statement after overnight negotiations. India has placed energy, food and supply-chain security under the summit’s resilience agenda.

The Red Sea crisis places those themes inside an immediate conflict involving several BRICS members. It also tests whether the grouping can address maritime security when its members have competing regional interests.

There is no confirmation that the Mayun capture will be named in the final declaration. India’s broader concern is already clear: secure shipping lanes are central to energy costs and trade.

For Indian consumers, the first impact would probably arrive through prices, freight and insurance rather than an abrupt disappearance of fuel. The risk grows if disruption at Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz persists together.