Gold, Silver may stay under pressure next week amid oil price surge, US-Iran tensions

Gold and silver are expected to remain under pressure in the coming week as investors weigh the impact of escalating tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices and a series of key global economic data releases, market analysts said.

Market participants are closely tracking developments following fresh US airstrikes on Iran after attacks on American-linked installations in Jordan, a move that has heightened geopolitical uncertainty and raised concerns over global energy supplies.

Analysts said investors will also monitor US weekly jobless claims, flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, monetary policy signals from major central banks and key economic indicators from Europe and China for clues on the global interest rate outlook.

Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services, said gold's momentum remains corrective as markets await the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this month, while geopolitical developments between the US and Iran continue to influence sentiment.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for August delivery declined ₹2,572, or nearly 2 per cent, to settle at ₹1.40 lakh per 10 grams during the week. Silver futures for September delivery fell ₹6,261, or 2.8 per cent, to close at ₹2.16 lakh per kilogram.

Jateen Trivedi, Vice President (Research), Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said a stronger US dollar, elevated crude oil prices and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates continued to weigh on bullion prices. He noted that every rebound in gold witnessed fresh selling, indicating traders were booking profits rather than initiating new long positions.

In the international market, COMEX gold futures fell 2.3 per cent to settle at USD 4,018.8 per ounce, while silver declined 6.4 per cent to USD 56.32 per ounce during the week.

Analysts said bullion recovered slightly on Friday but still ended the week in negative territory as crude oil prices surged more than 14 per cent amid fears of supply disruptions and rising US Treasury yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Market experts added that any further escalation in geopolitical tensions or renewed trade friction between the US and China could revive safe-haven demand for gold. Investors will also keep a close watch on PMI data from the Eurozone and the UK, along with economic developments in China, for further direction.