Exit polls were right: NDA wins fair and square
The exit polls were right all along. Bihar has chosen to give another five years to the NDA with thumping majority. What may be debated is not the victory itself, but the margin of it. The National Democratic Alliance’s emphatic win in the Bihar elections marks one of the most decisive mandates the state has witnessed in recent years. What makes this outcome remarkable is not merely the scale of the majority, but the clarity with which voters opted for continuity over change, organisation over loose alliances, and national issues over the local ones.
The opposition’s inability to convert anti-incumbency into electoral advantage saw the smooth sailing for the NDA. Although dissatisfaction existed, it did not consolidate into a demand for change. Voters preferred stability and alignment of state politics with the central government. Moreover, Nitish Kumar, despite long years in power and multiple political shifts, remains a towering figure in the state’s political landscape.
The NDA’s campaign strategically positioned him as the anchor of stability and good governance, a tag he has earned over the years. While anti-incumbency was expected to weigh in favour of Mahagathbandhan, the NDA managed to turn the narrative towards experience, predictability and steady administration. This perception proved crucial, tipping the balance in favour of the NDA. What truly powered the NDA, however, was its broadened social coalition. Beyond its traditional upper-caste and OBC support, the alliance made significant inroads among Economically backward castes (EBCs), Dalit communities and, critically, women voters. Women emerged as a silent yet decisive constituency whose turnout strongly favoured the NDA.
Equally important was the alliance’s disciplined and highly coordinated election machinery. It ran a focused, message-driven campaign that highlighted development, welfare continuity and social stability. Booth-level workers, constituency-level organisers and well-networked local leaders ensured that the NDA’s messaging travelled uniformly and effectively across the state.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan struggled to match this coherence. Despite generating enthusiasm in several pockets and fielding energetic leaders such as Tejashwi Yadav, the opposition failed to convert sentiment into structured mobilisation. Internal contradictions, an uneven ground presence and reliance on a narrow caste base weakened its effort. The dependence on the traditional Muslim–Yadav combination further limited its reach. Attempts to expand into EBCs and non-Yadav OBC groups did not significantly alter the electoral arithmetic. The underperformance of key partners — particularly the Congress — dragged down the coalition’s overall tally. The entry of new players such as the Jan Suraaj Party further fragmented the anti-NDA vote, weakening the Mahagathbandhan in several constituencies without yielding compensatory gains.
