Dhaka churns, Delhi on alert
India faces its most serious strategic test in its eastern neighbourhood, a parliamentary committee chaired by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor has cautioned. The panel, in a report submitted to the Government, argues that while Bangladesh is unlikely to slide into complete disorder, the current churn in Dhaka demands careful and calibrated handling from New Delhi.
“If India fails to recalibrate at this moment, it risks losing strategic space in Dhaka not to war, but to irrelevance,” the report warns. Bangladesh, currently, faces a deeper, generational shift, unlike the humanitarian crisis of the 1971 Liberation War, the report notes and goes on to warn a possible reordering of Bangladesh’s political landscape and a strategic drift away from India’s traditional influence.
The panel traces the present unrest in Bangladesh to multiple converging factors: the erosion of the long-standing dominance of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, the growing assertiveness of Islamist forces, and the expanding influence of China and Pakistan. Together, these trends, it says, are reshaping Bangladesh’s internal politics and its external alignments.
The report highlights a visible recalibration in Bangladesh’s foreign relations, especially towards Beijing and Islamabad. China’s role, the committee observes, now extends beyond economics into strategic and defence-related domains. It points to infrastructure projects such as the expansion of Mongla Port, development work at Lalmonirhat Airbase, and the submarine base at Pekua — a facility capable of hosting eight submarines despite Bangladesh currently possessing only two.
China, the panel adds, is engaging with a broad spectrum of Bangladeshi political actors, including Islamist organisations. The fact that leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami have visited China is cited as evidence of Beijing’s widening outreach. Pakistan’s renewed engagement with Dhaka is also flagged as a worrying trend.The committee notes a deteriorating security environment under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus. Reports of attacks on minorities and increasingly open hostility towards India — especially targeting the northeastern States — are highlighted as troubling developments.
Recent incidents underscore these concerns. Indian visa application centres, including one in Dhaka, were shut following protests by radical Islamist groups near the Indian High Commission. Separately, a leader of Bangladesh’s National Citizen Party reportedly issued threats about sheltering forces hostile to India and aiding efforts to cut off the country’s “seven sisters” from the mainland.
In response, New Delhi has adopted what the panel describes as a measured and restrained approach, avoiding escalation while firmly safeguarding India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.The Tharoor-led committee urges the Indian Government to remain vigilant against any attempt by external powers to establish a military foothold in Bangladesh. At the same time, it recommends that India proactively offer Dhaka tangible advantages — particularly in development assistance, connectivity, trade, and access to ports — to counterbalance rival influences.
