COP30 to G20 — India’s Alchemy of Influence

Expecting a congregation of doers, seekers, stoics and shapeshifters to arrive at a consensus based on collective wisdom is almost like believing in magic - good for a book on fantasy. The physical environment at COP30 was a contrast of sorts. If torrential rains damaged the ceiling of the main venue followed by a fire break out needing hurried evacuation, protests by indigenous people were doused by hearty cheers for ‘Mutirao’ call of the President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago. But the psychological milieu was something else altogether – marked by frustration, disappointment and ennui as a result of America’s absence, China’s measured responses, Europe’s trade stance and Petrostates public posture on Oil and Gas. The ideological contrast of course is the host itself – Brazil is now the ‘nouveau oil producer and exporter’, hosting a conference on fossil fuels phase out.

For a keen observer its quite clear that the relevance and importance of COP has taken a downturn. Compare it to the vibrant COP21 in France where almost all countries were represented by the Presidents and Prime Ministers to the COP30 where they were replaced by ministers and diplomats. At COP21 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) were announced with aplomb and here at Belem even after 10 long years ‘goal setting’ remained the goal of the conference.

Stoic silence on the quantum of funds and technology for transition, makes one wonder if the critics were right. The COP this time around is certainly a manifestation of a new geopolitical reality! A French man would conclude by saying “Chacun pour soi and Diu pour tous” each one for himself and god for all. Makes one wonder if Conference of Parties is a just an annual ritual of rhetoric or do the members have any real interest in protecting the earth? So what actually happened.

The two largest economies and historical emitters, the US and China, were conspicuous- one by its absence and the other by its lack of impact. By now the world knows that President Trump rejected climate contract and refused to send representatives while China focused more on its own interests in trade rather than stepping into to support whole heartedly. Trade and critical minerals being climate issues, Trade became a flashpoint creating tension in Belém as well. China and other countries voiced displeasure with the European Union’s carbon levy.

At COP 30, countries agreed to set up a two-year programme to enable developing countries to mobilise at least $1.3 trillion every year by 2035 — but with no clarity on who will contribute. The outcome of COP30 revealed deep fractures, particularly around on which countries should pay for adaptation and how to get the world off fossil fuels.

India’s Performance and Posturing

India has shown the world that development and environmental protection can advance together. The country’s emission intensity has declined by over 36 per cent since 2005, and its non-fossil energy capacity has reached 256 GW, now more than half of total installed power — an NDC target met five years early.

The country’s renewable energy grew at over three times the pace of electricity demand. Clean energy received 83 per cent of power sector investment, and renewable investments topped US$4.66 billion in the last quarter of 2024 — a 91.5 per cent annual increase. India is also now home to a rapidly growing clean energy sector. Over the past decade, its solar capacity has risen from just 5.7 gigawatts to more than 125 gigawatts.

India knows that technically feasible climate solutions are cost-effective and could prevent 180,000 premature deaths and 19 million tonnes of crop losses each year. The country is working on affordable, accessible climate technologies, free from restrictive intellectual property barriers, to ensure an inclusive global transition. India is prioritising sectors where it has a natural advantage — hydrogen, geothermal energy, and biofuels.

As India chaired the Leadership Group for Industry Transition (Lead IT) as Co-Chair at theCOP30 Summit, the Nation informed the world that since its launch, Lead IT has grown to 18 member countries and 27 companies, successfully elevating industrial transition on the global climate agenda, supporting transition roadmaps, improving transparency in global decarbonisation efforts and building platforms for knowledge exchange.

As the global south looks to India, we are among 13 countries and a regional alliance of African countries that announced plans to set up a national platform for “climate and nature finance” in Belem, Brazil  This would be coordinated through the Green Climate Fund (GCF), an institutional mechanism that has been at work since 2015, to fund projects in developing countries to adapt to unfolding climate change as well as to invest in clean energy. The new initiative will be guided by a steering committee with a majority of representatives from developing countries.

India’s Alchemy of Sorts

In a modern, figurative sense, the term "alchemy" refers to any impressive process that transforms something in a significant way. At both COP30 and G20, India's voice has become more crucial than ever as the United States, the world's largest historical emitter, steps back from its commitments. India’s global leadership is being followed closely. The country’s initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance, Global Biofuel Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure especially the momentum created by the Nuclear Mission and Green Hydrogen Mission in advancing India’s path to Net Zero by 2070.

Though India’s silence on coal dependence and delay in announcing NDC.3, most countries acknowledge her commitment to climate change mitigation. Cut to G20 India launched a new trilateral framework for cooperation in critical technologies, AI, supply chains, and clean energy. India’s Proposals on Global Traditional Knowledge Repository, skills multiplier for Africa, global satellite data partnership, healthcare response team, and anti–drug-terror nexus initiative were all endorsed and accepted.

At Johannesburg's G20 Summit, India navigated geopolitical tensions, forged partnerships, for developmental priorities of the Global South.

For India, the G20 summit validated its “Friend of the World” diplomatic strategy. By navigating geopolitical tensions while engaging both Western and emerging economies, India positioned itself as a beacon light in a polarized world. The launch of technology partnerships and counter terrorism initiatives demonstrates India's capability to shape new institutional frameworks serving its interests and that of the world’s. The new age alchemist under PM Modi.

The writer is an Independent Director of Engineers India Ltd; views are personal