Benin’s presidential election amidst security concerns

Voters in Benin will vote Sunday to elect a new president as outgoing leader Patrice Talon steps down after a decade in power with a mixed legacy of economic growth, but also a growing jihadi insurgency in the north and a clampdown on the opposition and critics.

Romuald Wadagni, the 49-year-old finance minister and governing coalition standard-bearer, is considered Talon’s anointed successor.

Wadagni is being challenged by Paul Hounkpe, the sole opposition candidate. In the parliamentary election in January, the opposition failed to cross the 20 per cent electoral threshold required to win seats, leaving Talon’s two allied parties in control of all 109 seats in the National Assembly and in a good position before Sunday’s vote.

Renaud Agbodjo, leader of The Democrats, was barred from competing after failing to secure a sufficient number of parliamentary endorsements — a threshold critics say was engineered to keep rivals out.

With the main Opposition sidelined, Wadagni is widely considered a favorite due in part to his strong economic track record and broad support from influential figures across historically rival camps, said Fiacre Vidjingninou, political analyst at the Lagos-based Behanzin Institute. “Ten years at the Finance Ministry have given him something rare in African politics: a quantified record - verifiable and difficult to dismantle in a serious debate,” Vidjingninou said.

The first round of the vote is set for April 12. In order to secure an outright victory, the winner would need to secure at least 50 per cent of the votes. If that doesn’t happen, a runoff will be conducted on May 10 between the top two candidates. Nearly 8 million people are eligible to vote in the election.

Wadagni is campaigning heavily on the country’s economic performance during his decade as finance minister. Benin’s economy grew 7 per cent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, making it one of West Africa’s steadiest performers. Under Talon, the country sustained robust growth for nearly a decade, driven by agriculture, trade and a major port expansion in the economic hub Cotonou that turned Benin into a key transit point for landlocked neighbors. Infrastructure has also expanded.

However, the gains have been unequally shared, with poverty remaining widespread in rural areas and in the poorer northern region.

While Benin has historically been among the most stable democracies in Africa, Opposition leaders and human rights organisations have accused Talon of using the justice as a tool to sideline his opponents, after taking office in 2016 and changing electoral rules.