Be smart, do not wait for sales

For years, smartphone pricing followed a predictable curve and cycles. New flamboyant and flashy devices were launched at unusually high prices, which softened over months, and hit the lowest points during the regular festive sales at some point. This trend and pattern are under pressure. The acceptable and normal downward price equation is now driven by a component that rarely features in conversations but sits at the heart of every device, memory. A sharp rise in global prices of memory has rippled through the smartphone market, and its effects are being felt during flagship launches, and festive sales.

“Seeing the current market scenario and memory price projections… there is a high probability that prices will become higher over time, resulting in higher prices during sale events compared to launch prices,” wrote Himanshu Tandon of Nothing on X. The warning captures a shift that is visible across the industry. Hence, it may be better to purchase a new smartphone nearer to the launch rather than wait for festive discounts. By the latter time, memory prices may skyrocket, and make the older model more expensive than it was. In fact, there is no guarantee how prices will behave.

Global prices of memory, which determine how much immediate processing, and long-term storage a smartphone carries, have surged, and may continue to do so. MarketWatch suggests that memory prices have more than doubled since late last year. TrendForce estimates that prices of flash storage tech that retains data without power may rise by 55-60 per cent quarter-on-quarter. The hikes are driven largely due to demand from AI infrastructure, as data centres, a new furious rage among developed nations and emerging markets, consume huge and unprecedented volumes of high-performance memory.

For smartphone brands, the memory-price trends create cost pressures. Many brands are scrambling to finetune their plans based on the price changes. Experts feel that while the prices of new smartphone models are bound to increase, it may lead to fewer launches in 2026. For consumers, it will willy-nilly reshape which devices they purchase, and when. In effect, they will continuously ponder whether it is advisable to buy a model during the launch, or later as and when a new variant is on the horizon. They may not be able to visualise a scenario where the old model becomes expensive, and a new one never arrives.

Samsung’s Galaxy S26 series was launched in India at INR 87,999 for the base model, compared to INR 80,999 for the S25. The S26+ moved to INR 1,19,999 from INR 99,999, and the Ultra variant rose to INR 1,39,999 from INR 1,29,999. While a firm’s pricing decisions can be influenced by multiple factors, which include consumer sentiments and anticipation, rising hardware-memory costs are harder to absorb. At the same time, the upward pricing shift is not limited to the headline prices. It is reflected in what the consumers are being sold as baseline models.

For example, over the past two launch cycles, brands have moved baseline configurations upward. Hence, what was once sold as a standard model with 8GB RAM, 128GB storage is being replaced by 12GB and 256GB variants in the premium segment. Thus, the average selling prices of the base models go up, even as the nominal price increases appear modest. For consumers, the effect is subtle but significant. The entry price for the premium segment is up, not just because of higher prices of the launch models, but because of the quiet disappearance of the models with the lower configurations.

As the new devices become more expensive, and are less likely to see meaningful price corrections over time, the relative values of older smartphones begin to change, particularly in price-sensitive markets like India. This shift is visible in the secondary smartphone market. According to CCS Insight, India’s organised refurbished smartphone market reached 5.7 million units in 2024. It is the third-largest globally, after China and the US. Counterpoint estimates that the pre-owned segment expanded in 2025, but the growth was uneven due to supply-side constraints. The challenge is not demand but availability.

Industry reports indicate that the organised refurbishing players face tighter supplies as trade-ins are diverted to offline and unorganised channels. Hence, a growing share of used devices are possibly being absorbed by informal networks that operate with lower costs, and greater pricing flexibility. This creates a divergence. Rising prices of new smartphones should, in theory, benefit the organised players. In practice, the unorganised ones are better positioned to capture this demand. Without the burden of warranties, compliances or structured refurbishment processes, grey sellers price devices aggressively. As the gap between new and used devices widens, value-conscious consumers may gravitate towards these informal channels.

Organised players hope to change the equation. The strategy is to move refurbished devices closer to mainstream retail, where trust, visibility, and after-sales can offset price differences. Hence, Cashify reported 40 per cent year-on-year growth in refurbished direct-to-consumer business in 2025, and Control Z expanded offline presence, crossed 100 stores, and targeted a significantly larger footprint. Another factor in favour of the secondary market is longevity. Smartphone brands have extended software support cycles, particularly in the premium segment. Devices that were outdated after 2-3 years are viable for a longer time.

While this extends the usable life of the old models, and improves the resale values, it makes refurbished purchases attractive. At the same time, it changes consumer behaviour. Replacement cycles have lengthened, with users holding on to devices for longer periods. This reduces the volume of trade-ins even as demand for lower-cost alternatives increases. This creates pressure on the trade-in ecosystem that has underpinned smartphone sales for years. Exchange offers rely on steady flow of used devices, and predictable resale values. When upgrade cycles slow down, and pricing becomes volatile, both assumptions begin to weaken.

For brands and retailers, this introduces complexity. Financing adds another layer. A significant share of premium smartphone purchases is driven by no-cost EMIs, and credit-based offers. As upfront prices rise, monthly affordability becomes crucial. Refurbished players respond with financing options to narrow the price and accessibility gaps. Taken together, these shifts point to broader transitions. What starts as a memory or component cost issue becomes embedded in the retail supply chain, and impacts consumer economics, and existing structures. For the mobile makers, this affects pricing, device configurations, how long they are used, and the locations where they are sold.