Even-odd may be dud a la Mexico City
It was in 1989 that Mexico City had its first run-in with car rationing scheme in the form of Hoy no Circula (No Circulating Day) that prohibited certain vehicle numbers every weekday. The ambitious scheme yielded no results even in the short term because car users acquired a second vehicle to beat the restrictions. Experts believe that given the high income levels in Delhi, the scheme may witness the same fate in the long run.
“Given the greater wealth and income levels, and higher auto ownership rates in Delhi, it is likely that many residents would emulate the adaptation strategy of Mexico City residents by acquiring additional vehicles with a different licence plate so that they would be able to drive at least one of their vehicles across the city on any given day,” suggests a study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM) of India.
The study also points out that while short-term congestion and air quality benefits may be realised, but these may be reduced in the long run as travelers adopt various coping strategies.
In most cities across the world, rationing policy was first introduced on a trial basis, then expanded to full-time as the trials seemed to have the desired effects in the short term. “Once the policies were made permanent, some motorists were willing to invest in solutions to evade the restrictions (such as taking taxis and acquiring additional vehicles). In addition, some of the mileage reduced from the initial restrictions were offset over the long term by greater off-peak usage, trip deferrals, and induced demand,” the study added.
People might also employ other strategies to get around the vehicle use restrictions that would further reduce the effectiveness of the car use rationing. “It may lead to increased use of taxis and shifting trips to days that the vehicle is not restricted. Also it may not impact vehicle kilometres clocked by a vehicle if it is used more on the day when it is allowed to operate. Finally, the elimination of trips barred by rationing could induce additional demand - new trips could take advantage of less congested roadways,” it said.
However, the study points out that licence plate rationing is more effective when paired with improvements to alternate modes of travel. This was experienced in Bogota, the capital of Colombia, where licence plate rationing was implemented simultaneously with Bus Rapid Transport System (BRT) and bicycle paths.
It remains to be seen if odd-even scheme will be a one-off effort by the Delhi Government or if it will be complemented with other measures including boosting of public transport system.