Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Arvind Kejriwal was all fire and brimstone when he contested the lok Sabha elections in Varanasi against BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. However, after his drubbing in the holy land, he has clearly come out of the Ganges chastened. The course of recent events certainly point that way, like AAP website poster praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi while two of his party MlAs — Rajesh Garg from Rohini and Harish Khanna from Timarpur — refusing to contest Assembly polls.
According to political analysts, Kejriwal is aware that if he keeps on attacking the Prime Minister over political issues, he and his party may loose on middle class and youth votes. The erosion of middle class and youth votes has put AAP on the back foot to reconsider its poll strategy. The same middle class and youth voted against the AAP in the lok Sabha polls in 2014. BJP had led in 60 Assembly seats during last lok Sabha polls and AAP had lost its major vote share to BJP. Aware of these dynamics, Kejriwal has changed his tactics and is singing a different tune now.
As per the data, the middle class and youth voters had preferred to vote for Narendra Modi during the lok Sabha elections in 2014. There are over two dozen Assembly constituencies where middle class and youth, who had voted to AAP during Assembly polls, preferred to vote for Modi in 2014. There was a decline of vote share for AAP from 10 to 25 per cent in lok Sabha elections. The constituencies include New Delhi, Patparganj, Greater Kailash, Shakurbasti, Malviya Nagar, Rohini, Timarpur, Shalimar Bagh, Kasturba Nagar, Hari Nagar, Janakpuri, Model Town, Patel Nagar, Tilak Nagar, Dwarka, Rajender Nagar, Kalkaji, Jangpura, Karol Bagh, Delhi Cantonment and Chandni Chowk.
For instance, there was a decline of 17.98 per cent of AAP votes in Rohini in 2014 as compared to 2013 Assembly polls. The BJP has got 41.84 per cent in 2013 while it got 63.12 per cent in 2014. In Shalimar Bagh, the vote percentage of AAP, has declined to 16.01 per cent as compared to Assembly polls. The BJP had got 34.10 per cent vote share last year while it vote per cent increased 53.50 per cent in 2014. In Shakurbasti, BJP had obtained 34.87 per cent in 2013 while it got 57.07 per cent in 2014. The decline of vote share of AAP was 16.30 per cent. Rohini, Shalimar Bagh and Shakurbasti seats were won by AAP in 2013. According to data, AAP vote percentage in Greater Kailash also decreased to 18.80 per cent in 2014 as compared to 2013 while BJP’s percentage increased from 31.51 per cent to 52.49 per cent during the same period. In Malviya Nagar, it increased from 29.19 per cent to 48.41 per cent for BJP while AAP’s share declined to 10.10 per cent. In Kasturba Nagar, BJP’s percentage increased from 32.74 per cent to 52.88 per cent while the same declined to 13.89 per cent for AAP.
In the last Delhi Assembly polls AAP won 28 seats and emerged runners-up in 20 constituencies, while the BJP’s tally stood at 31 and its candidates were in second position in 29 other seats. Significantly, the Congress won just 8 seats, was runners-up in another 14, while its candidates were a distant third in 41 seats. Notably, AAP won 26 urban constituencies in comparison to the BJP’s 24 and the Congress’ 8 seats. Sources in the AAP said that the sudden erosion of major vote chunk put AAP on the back to assess and redefine its strategy for the Assembly polls.
Political analysts feel that “even Kejriwal has apprehensions that losing middle class votes in New Delhi will make it difficult for him to retain the seat. There has been considerable erosion in the middle class base of AAP since its suicidal decision to resign from the Delhi Government. Though it’s tough to gauge the electoral impact of AAP’s refusal to act responsibly, it appears unlikely that Delhi would go against the national tide and root for Kejriwal when the rest of India is attending Modi’s party.” Due to erosion of middle class and youth voters from AAP, two of its MlAs — Rajesh Garg from Rohini and Harish Khurana from Timarpur — have refused to contest the upcoming Assembly polls in Delhi.