With Delhi polls a day away, Muslims in the Capital appear to be in the mood for ‘tactical voting’ even though in certain areas, they are increasingly veering towards Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Congress, banking heavily on minority votes, will have to face tougher competition from AAP - party that has gained wider acceptance, particularly among Muslims since 2013.
In 2015, Muslims seemed to show a predilection for tactical voting during the Assembly polls. The fraternity is inclined to vote for Congress candidates from Matia Mahal, Seelampur, Okhla and Ballimaran. It is only in constituencies where Muslim candidates are not in the fray are voters bending towards AAP.
In the Assembly elections of 2013, five of Congress’ eight seats were minority bedrocks. This could well explain why many within the Congress believe their performance in these constituencies may hit the skids. AAP has been accepted by members of the minority community as the real challenge to BJP’s march towards securing political power in the Capital.
All eight seats that the Congress had won in the last Assembly elections were in areas where the Muslim voters accounted for more than 10 per cent. These seats were Badli with 12 per cent Muslim voters, Chandni Chowk with 20 per cent, Ballimaran with 38 per cent, Okhla with 43 per cent, Gandhi Nagar with 22 per cent, Seelampur with 50 per cent, Mustafabad with 36 per cent and Sultanpur Majra with 10 per cent.
Outgoing MlA Shoaib Iqbal, who quit Janata Dal (United) to join the Congress, had won Matia Mahal seat, which has a Muslim vote share of 48 per cent.
Of the 32 seats where Muslim vote share is above 10 per cent, the BJP had won 12, AAP 10 and one was won by an Independent in the 2013 elections. These constituencies were Adarsh Nagar, Bawana, Kirari, Uttam Nagar, Badarpur, Krishna Nagar, Shahdara, Rohtas Nagar, Ghonda, Babarpur, Gokalpur and Karawal Nagar.
The seats, with over 10 per cent Muslim voters, won by AAP were Sadar Bazar, Patel Nagar, Vikaspuri, Jangpura, Malviya Nagar, Sangam Vihar, Trilokpuri, Kondli, laxmi Nagar and Seemapuri. The party leadership in Delhi hopes if it wins the support of the Muslims, they may touch double digits (less than 15) in Delhi.
Muslims make up 12 per cent to 14 per cent of Delhi’s 1.33 crore voters in Delhi. Traditionally, they have dominantly voted for the Congress in a city where voters had only two main parties to choose from: Congress and BJP. The emergence of AAP has altered the political landscape.
A senior leader of the Congress party, on condition of anonymity, admittedly said, “The party is not sure of even winning the seats dominated by the Muslims as there is growing acceptance among Muslim voters for AAP, especially the youth, interested more in issue-based politics than one based on debates on secularism and communalism. The issues that the new party has been raising have captured the collective imagination of the young Muslims, eager to shrug off identity politics.”
“Muslim voters were sceptical of voting for AAP in the last elections since they were uncertain of their electoral performance. Having now realised AAP is the real McCoy for the throne in Delhi, the community might vote for Kejriwal’s party,” he argued. In 2014 lok Sabha polls, Muslims voted for AAP, which led to four Congress candidates forfeiting their security deposit.