As Republican primaries rolled along in four more States on Tuesday, a new poll has found that front-runner Donald Trump’s hold over party voters has weakened over the past month, but he continues to lead his
rivals nationally in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.
Among registered Republican voters, 34 per cent want Trump to be the party nominee (down from 37 per cent in January), while 25 per cent prefer Ted Cruz (up from 21 per cent), 18 per cent favour Marco Rubio (up from 11 per cent) and 13 per cent opt for John Kasich (up from 2 per cent), says the Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The new poll findings came on a day when billionaire media mogul and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg dropped his plan for an independent presidential bid. Conceding he may fall short if he ran, Bloomberg said his candidacy could end up benefiting Trump or Cruz, terming it a risk he cannot take in “good conscience”.
In Tuesday’s primaries, various polls have indicated that it will be advantage Trump in the delegates-rich Michigan and Mississippi and possibly Idaho as well. Hawaii is the fourth State in the pack. A total of 150 delegates will be awarded by the four States.
Most pollsters believe that regardless of a good performance on Tuesday, Trump will have to win the winner-takes-all States of Florida and Ohio next week for a reasonable path to nomination.
The rise of Cruz, the darling of Tea Party conservatives, has been the most remarkable aspect of the Republican race. Cruz, however, can hope to make further dents only if two other contestants, Rubio and Kasich, pull out soon enough and prevent the continuing split of anti-Trump votes.
The Post-ABC poll also had disturbing news for Trump on other counts, finding that “over half of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think Trump is dishonest, does not understand their problems, lacks the right experience and does not have the right personality and temperament to be an effective president”.
“By contrast, over 6 in 10 Republicans say Cruz is honest, empathetic and has the right temperament and experience; similar shares say Rubio the first three qualities, while half say he has the right experience,” the poll noted. But Rubio may no longer be a factor, after his poor performance thus far.
As for the Democratic race, the poll found that front-runner Hillary Clinton’s national margin of preference over challenger Bernie Sanders has also shrunk to 7 per cent from what used to be a 19 per cent advantage in January. Clinton is now the favourite for the nomination among 49 per cent of Democrats and pro-Democrat independents, against Sanders’ 42 per cent.