Buoyed by a host of polls, Republican front-runner Donald Trump looks for a landslide victory on his home turf of New York on Tuesday and steal a big march over Senator Ted Cruz in the race for delegates, thereby sending a ringing message to the party establishment.
Trump has a whopping 35 per cent lead over Cruz in a Real Clear Politics average of seven polls, six of which give the billionaire more than 50 per cent. Incidentally, Trump’s main rival in the New York primary is not Cruz, but Ohio Governor John Kasich, who also trails him by 30 per cent.
On the Democratic side, too, front-runner Hillary Clinton is predicted to win comfortably with the RCP average giving her a 13 per cent lead over Senator Bernie Sanders, who has otherwise mounted a spirited challenge in her adopted home which she has represented twice in the Senate.
Realising that he has to win New York massive if he has to walk away with all or most of its 95 delegates, Trump has been barnstorming as never before in recent days.
For a clean sweep of New York’s delegates, Trump will not only have to poll more than 50 per cent State-wide, but also in each of its 27 Congressional districts. By polling more than 50 per cent State-wide, Trump will get all the 14-at-large delegates, but if he falls below the half-way mark, there will be a proportional distribution. Same procedure will apply to the 27 Congressional districts, each of which awards three delegates.
“We have to win by big numbers,” Trump told a big rally of supporters in Poughkeepsie on Sunday — a day when he was blanked out by Cruz in Wyoming by winning all 14 delegates at a party convention as opposed to a regular primary or caucus.
Needing 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination, Trump right now has 744 against Cruz’s 559 and Kasich’s 144. Senator Marco Rubio, who bowed out of the race after his defeat in Florida last month, has 171 delegates.
Trump has been waging a full-scale war against the Republican establishment for “stacking the rules” against him in what he sees as a game plan to deny him the nomination in case he falls short of the magic figure of 1,237.
On the Democratic side, Clinton appeared to be increasingly confident of holding back Sanders in New York, despite the large crowds of energetic supporters that the septuagenarian Senator has been attracting there.
Dubbing the Republican Party’s delegate system a “sham”, Trump told his supporters: “We have a system that is rigged. We have a system that is broken.” Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus stoutly denied the Trump’s allegations, asserting in an interview to NBC on Sunday: “The rules are set….I’m not going to allow anyone to rewrite the rules for the party.”
On the Democratic side, Clinton appeared to be increasingly confident of holding back Sanders in New York, despite the large crowds of energetic supporters that the septuagenarian Senator has been attracting there.
But Sanders kept the morale of his base, asserting in an interview to CBS: “I think we have real shot to win on Tuesday if there is a large voter turnout. I think a lot of these super-delegates are going to conclude that Bernie Sanders is the candidate to prevent what must not be allowed to happen, and that is Donald Trump becoming president.”