The Reserve Bank expects the value of the domestic currency to hover around Rs 75 to a dollar and Indian crude basket to about USD 35 per barrel during 2020-21.
The rupee came under intensified and sustained depreciation pressures from mid-January, reflecting a generalised weakening of emerging market currencies amid flights to safety, RBI said in its Monetary Policy Report.
Taking into account the sizable two-way movements in the nominal exchange rate during October-December 2019, RBI expects the value of Indian rupee to be around Rs 75 to a dollar.
“…the nominal exchange rate (INR vis-à -vis US dollar) exhibited sizable two-way movements during October-December 2019. The INR came under intensified and sustained depreciation pressures beginning mid-January, reflecting a generalised weakening of emerging market currencies amidst flights to safety. “Accordingly, the baseline assumes an average of Rs 75 per US dollar to reflect these recent developments,” said the RBI report.