Although the number of nuclear weapons that India is thought to have built from its stocks of weapon-grade plutonium is unknown, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security has estimated the size of the country’s nuclear arsenal at 75 to 125 weapons.
A newly-released report by the institute speaks of India’s “extensive expertise about making nuclear weapons from plutonium”, including knowledge and experience gained in the 1974 and 1998 underground nuclear tests.
Another report, released last month by the Chicago-based Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists had last month, had estimated Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal at 110 to 130 nuclear warheads – up from the estimated 90 to 110 in 2011. It also talked of Pakistan possibly growing to be the world’s fifth largest nuclear weapons State, with 220 to 250 warheads by the year 2025.
“India’s weapons likely use weapon-grade plutonium, and it is believed to have multiple fission weapon designs suitable for different types of delivery systems,” said the report from the Washington think tank, released on Monday.
Noting that India has one of the largest nuclear power programmes among developing nations, the report talks of India having “a substantial stock of nuclear weapons made from weapon-grade plutonium, and perhaps some thermonuclear weapons that rely on both weapon-grade plutonium and weapon-grade uranium”.
“An estimate of India’s nuclear arsenal can be derived by considering its weapon-grade plutonium stock. The resulting estimate has a median of 138 nuclear weapons equivalent with a range of 110 to 175 weapons equivalent,” the report said, adding: “However, the actual number of nuclear weapons India built from its stocks of weapon-grade plutonium must be less.”
“When accounting for the amount of plutonium in the weapons production pipelines and in reserves, it is reasonable to assume that only about 70 per cent of the estimated stock of weapon-grade uranium is in nuclear weapons,” it said and predicted the number of weapons made by the end of 2014 at about 97 with a range of 77-123.