Bare the air

Going at the current rate, toxic emissions are likely to increase by stunning proportions in 2030.  However, with the use of unadulterated low sulphur fuels, effective performance of diesel particulate filters and stricter norms for two and three wheelers, we can hope to keep the levels in check

Of late, extreme levels of pollution in Delhi has alerted all stakeholders. There’s a flurry of debates and discussions on how to make Indian cities, or the world for that matter, cleaner and greener, so that coming generations can inhale fresh air rather than wearing masks for life. However, the latest statistics revealed by multiple agencies have only left many in distress.   

The transport sector emissions of PM 2.5 will increase about three times and emissions of NOx (nitrogen oxide) will increase by about five times by 2030. This is because of the expected growth of vehicles and stagnancy in adoption of better fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India. This scenario could lead to increased mortalities, reduced agricultural yields and disruption in rainfall patterns. A report India-California Air Pollution Mitigation Program by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), University of California at San Diego (UCSD) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) analyses the pollution scenario and spells out the steps needed to overcome the impending crisis. In India, ambient air pollution caused an estimated 6,27,000 premature deaths in 2010.

The impending crisis

Worse, 80 per cent of Indian cities already violate the standards for air quality. About 28,000 two wheelers and 4,200 cars are added to India’s vehicular fleet daily. Under current trends in growth of vehicles with current fuel and emission standards, the transport sector emissions of PM 2.5 will increase about three times and emissions of NOx will increase by about five times by 2030. This is because of the expected growth of vehicles and stagnancy in adoption of better fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India.

Estimates reveal that the total number of vehicles could well exceed 400 million by 2030. This will increase PM 2.5 emissions from vehicles from about 100 kt/yr in 2010 to 280 kt/yr in 2030, in a business as usual scenario assuming BS-III and BS-IV standards are implanted in some cities. Alternate (AlT-I and AlT-II) scenarios, which envisage introduction of BS-IV norms all across the country by 2015 versus 2020 show reductions of 43 per cent and 30 per cent in PM 2.5 emissions respectively. The scenario may improve a bit with the announced introduction of BS-IV standards all across the country by 2016. However, the best results can only come with a move to BS-V quality of fuel and BS-VI vehicular emissions standards for vehicles.

Aiming clean air

• The Indian government should mandate and facilitate the refineries to upgrade their facilities and supply BS-V fuel all over the country no later than 2018. The BS-V fuel standards will reduce the sulphur content of fuels from the current high levels (50-350 ppm) to the UlSF (ultra low sulphur diesel) value of 10 ppm.
• There should be an expert group to prescribe BS-VI vehicle emission norms by 2017 and introduce them by 2020-21 across the country.
• The new standards would enable diesel particulate filters (DPF) to function with maximum efficacy. Such filters, if retro-fitted onto existing vehicles, would help reduce per vehicle PM 2.5 emissions by about 90 per cent from today’s levels. Considering that the share of diesel in the transportation of passengers and freight is about 70 per cent, a reduction of this magnitude in emissions from diesel vehicles would have a significant benefit to public health.
• The Auto Fuel Vision 2025 (AFV2025) Committee set up by the government released its report in June 2014. Though their recommendations are broadly consistent with the recommendations of ICAMP, their time scales are slower by two to three years in the case of BS-IV and four years in the case of BS-VI emission standards, compared with the time scales prescribed by the TERI’s report.
• AFV2025 recommends BS-IV and BS-V fuels across the country by 2017 and 2020, respectively. There should be leapfrogging from BS-III (the current standards) directly to BS-V by 2018. Each year delayed will result in an addition of about 15 million more polluting vehicles on the road.
• However, if there is no possibility whatsoever of advancing the timelines recommended by the AFV 2025 Committee, then these timelines should be notified to refineries and vehicle manufacturers immediately, to avoid further delays in introducing the fuel and emission norms.
• The authors also urge for the introduction of stricter norms for two and three wheelers also, with separate standards for HC and NOx for effective control of both the pollutants.
• The use of unadulterated low sulphur fuels and the effective performance of the Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF) and other after treatment devices would call for significant investments in inspection and maintenance (I&M) as well as enforcement facilities, especially in cities with a population of one million or more. Indian states should also consider modifying vehicle registration requirements to ensure that all vehicles are periodically checked for compliance with the emission norms.
• A coordinated (between academia and government) observational and modelling effort is required to develop national capability for assessment of pollution impacts as well as science-based policy directives and to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation actions in improving ambient air quality, human health and other parts of the ecosystem. A state-of-the art monitoring facility for Delhi, which will serve both as a model for a baseline system to be replicated in other cities in India, and for monitoring the evolution of air pollution in India’s capital city, considered now to be one of the most polluted cities in the world.

The cost of transition

According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the direct costs of refinery investment to meet ultra low sulphur standards are estimated at $4.2 billion. AFV2025 have put the costs at up to three times this amount. However, a comparison with California cost figures for refinery upgrades, where the capacity is in the range of 50 per cent of the Indian refining industry, suggest lower figures than the Indian industry estimate. Summing investments and increased operational costs, and normalising them to a per litre basis, Indian refineries would pay an extra 0.70-0.88¢ per litre of fuel produced. Thus, ultra low sulphur fuels would additionally cost only about 50 paisa per litre. Even after tax impacts, the net increase in fuel price due to UlSFs will be less than two per cent of the present fuel price.

Climate change

The monsoon and the Himalayan glaciers provide for the water needs of all of South Asia. Air pollution aerosols have a negative impact on both the monsoon and the glaciers. The transport sector has a role in these effects since it contributes to black carbon, organic carbon and nitrate aerosols. For instance, the transport sector emits 6.6 giga tons of CO2 out of the 35 giga tons from fossil fuels. Hence, it is a major source of global warming. The transportation sector also has the highest rate of growth in CO2 emissions. The other major greenhouse gases emitted by this sector is methane, CFCs and HFCs. Diesel vehicles are one of the major sources of black carbon aerosols and they also emit organic carbon aerosols. Additionally, the transportation sector leads to the increase of ozone and NOx emissions contribute to nitrate aerosols in PM.

Studies reveal that in the South Asian regions and the surrounding Indian Ocean, aerosols contribute to significant dimming at the surface. The magnitude of the solar dimming is as much as 10 per cent over the oceans and 20 to 30 per cent over the subcontinent. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust (road and desert dust) absorb 10 to 25 per cent of solar radiation within the atmosphere. Several studies suggest this vertical redistribution of solar radiation along with alteration of the solar heating gradient between the land and oceans and between the north and the south Indian Ocean to weaken the monsoon circulation and reduce the summer time precipitation by five to ten per cent.

It is significant that observations show that the Indian monsoon precipitation has decreased by about seven per cent from 1950 to 2005. In addition, direct deposition of black carbon over the bright snow and ice surfaces in the Himalayas, increases the absorption of solar radiation over the glaciers and snow packs, which also contributes significantly to the warming. The two processes, black carbon direct warming of the atmosphere and the deposition over snow and ice, amplify the CO2 induced warming over the Himalayas by as much as 100 to 150 per cent. Also, the rule of thumb is that, absent adaptation, each one degree celsius increase in temperature would correspond to about a 10 per cent reduction in yields.

TERI Feature Service