According to some reports and these aren’t necessarily the last word in dispassionate journalism — the forthcoming Assembly election in West Bengal is likely to witness a real contest. The contention is that whereas the earlier feeling was that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress would secure a resounding win, the ground situation has changed following the semi-official alliance of the CPI(M) and the Congress. To this curious alliance, has now been added the supposed impact of the Narada sting operation that showed many TMC legislators accepting bribes to further the interests of a (fictitious) business.
The extent to which the sting operation whose findings have been accorded lavish publicity by the main media group in West Bengal — will enable the CPI(M)-Congress alliance to close the gap and give the TMC a run for its money is still a matter of conjecture. West Bengal has a record of enduring Governments: The Congress ruled unchallenged from Independence to 1967, the left Front prevailed from 1977 to 2011, and the TMC appears to have strengthened its position immeasurably since it won in the ‘wave’ election of 2011. Even the Narendra Modi offensive of 2014 could not prevent Mamata from sweeping the lok Sabha elections.
Much more than in other States, party organisation seems to matter inordinately in West Bengal. This is the reason why political violence is so widespread in the State and why the ruling dispensation starts off with an advantage. Between 2011 and 2016, Mamata has no doubt irritated a large section of the middle classes owing to high-handedness of its cadres and the extortionist ways of a politically-controlled ‘syndicate’ that imposes unofficial levies on businesses and other economic activity. At the same time, Mamata has increased her party’s rural presence, thanks in no small measure by the defection of activists earlier associated with the CPI(M). Even if Mamata has to struggle in urban areas, it is felt that the deficit will be covered by her growing rural support.
Finally, Mamata’s position looks secure owing to the strong Muslim support for the TMC in southern and central parts of the State. Muslims, who make up nearly a third of the actual voting population, may be a little more inclined towards the Congress in the border districts of North Bengal but the community remains wary of the local CPI(M) thanks to the lurking presence of former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee who has acquired an image of being inimical to traditionalist Muslims.
At one time, particularly in the aftermath of the 2014 election, it seemed that the BJP would emerge as a viable third force and maybe even overtake the CPI(M) as the main Opposition. However the party made a series of tactical miscalculations and failed to develop a local leadership. The BJP is still a potent force in the event of a lok Sabha election but it has been edged out of the reckoning in local politics.
While the electoral battle in West Bengal is still taking shape, it is important to delve a little on the Narada revelations that, on the face of it, appears to have dented the TMC’s image.
I am not so much concerned with the timing of the revelations that are undeniably aimed at influencing the election outcome. Just as many media groups use the parliamentary session to maximise the impact of their ‘scoops’, Narada has released its sting operation findings during the election season. In the light of the Indian media’s inclination to be political players, the timing of the sting shouldn’t occasion real surprise.
However, questions need to be asked as to why an operation conducted prior to the 2014 lok Sabha poll was kept in cold storage for so long. There are many conspiracy theories floating but the one that appeals to me is the theory that the purpose of the sting was to put pressure on Mamata in the event that the lok Sabha poll throwing up a fractured verdict. Since the BJP won that election on its own, the larger political purpose of the sting was defeated. Hence the project was shelved and resurrected in 2016 with a different objective.
To my mind some of the explanations given by the Narada editors to explain the delay are unconvincing. A full post-mortem of the operation may reveal interesting links.
Regardless of the motives of the ‘scoop’ media, there is a troubling question that remains. Over the past decade or so, investigative journalism — the branch that believes in unearthing political venality has discovered a useful short-cut in sting operations. Never mind ploughing through reams of documents for the smoking gun or even interviewing the unfortunate victims of corruption, it has become obligatory to lure supposedly venal politicians into honey traps. These include flaunting wads of notes before people, some of whom may never have seen that kind of money.
Is it ethical to tempt individuals and, if they succumb, flaunt it as incontrovertible evidence of venalityIJ This is a philosophical question that is beyond my competence to answer. All that can be said is that journalism needs to focus to actual wrongdoing rather than character weaknesses that may, under some circumstances, lead to ethical missteps.
Mamata may win the forthcoming Assembly election or she may well be voted out. Whatever the outcome, I sincerely hope that the Narada sting plays no role in the final collective decision. If, however, it does, it will open the floodgates of some very dodgy journalism.