Jumping to instant conclusions is one of the occupational hazards of the 24x7 news cycle. It is not desirable but it is unavoidable and driven by consumer demand. Consequently, it was but natural that the dramatic developments in Bihar last week should have prompted a series of instant judgments.
Sifting through the punditry, five sets of conclusions have emerged.
First, that when it comes to tactical acumen, there is no real match for today’s BJP leadership and particularly its President Amit Shah. Transiting from a time in 1996 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee found it impossible to attract the numbers and had to resign after 13 days, the BJP is today single-minded in its quest for political advantage. Conversely, the Opposition parties and particularly the Congress, have been shown to be the political equivalent of the flat-footed policeman.
Second, while judgments of Nitish Kumar vary according to political preferences—some call him ‘opportunist’ while others see him as being ‘principled’—there is little doubt that he has for the moment captured the high moral ground with his zero tolerance of corruption. This bolsters his image among those who feel that corruption, cronyism and parivarvaad are blots on Indian democracy. It has also established a synergy between him and the Prime Minister.
Third, the Opposition parties that have rallied behind lalu Yadav and his family have made the defence of secularism their main plank. By implication they have indicated that cronyism, corruption and dynastic politics are inconsequential—and even worth condoning—in the larger battle against the BJP. Consequently, they have conferred an ethical halo on both Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. If the Prime Minister now blends his anti-corruption credentials with the message of compassion for the poor, efficient welfare programmes and good governance, there is every possibility that the stranglehold of caste politics in the Hindi heartland could be broken.
Fourth, it is undeniable that there is a deep squeamishness in Nitish Kumar over the excesses committed by vigilantes in the name of Hindutva. In 2013, Nitish peremptorily broke off ties with the BJP because he felt that Modi’s image as a Hindu icon made him unelectable. He was proved wrong and this week he has tacitly admitted his error. At the same time, the demonology around Modi has undergone a shift. The real attack has shifted from Modi being unelectable to the fact that he has used his personal popularity to promote a form of authoritarianism that is centred on development. Ironically, this is also the image of Nitish Kumar.
It is my belief that the presence of the Bihar Chief Minister in the NDA camp will help Modi in controlling the hotheads in his party, particularly those who believe elections should be fought and either won or lost on sharp identity issues. Modi has always felt that nothing should ever be done to unite the Opposition. Having secured Nitish into his camp, it will be in Modi’s interest to ensure that the next election is fought on bread and butter issues, and not on religio-cultural themes. The BJP has undertaken a massive programme to expand its social base among backward castes and Dalits. In this project, having Nitish Kumar as an ally will be valuable, even though the Janata Dal (United) presence on the ground is extremely patchy, even in Bihar.
Finally, the punditry has jumped to the facile conclusion that the 2019 general election is as good as won by the BJP and Prime Minister Modi. With two years still to go before people vote for the next lok Sabha, it is premature to forecast the results of the poll. However, while the Opposition is certainly demoralised and desperate, there is no indication that the commitment to the mahagathbandhan has in any way waned. Indeed, the more desperate the Opposition gets the more likely is the possibility of Opposition unity against NDA candidates.
As of now, there are only three big States where the Opposition has the upper hand. There is Tamil Nadu where a rudderless and orphaned AIADMK seems set to be defeated by the more organised and purposeful DMK under Stalin; there is West Bengal where the violent political culture and the absence of local leadership is making it difficult for the BJP to make deep inroads into Trinamool Congress territory; and there is Kerala where the space for a third party looks bleak. Apart from these three States, the NDA seems set to take maximum advantage of the Modi Government.
In 2013, the legend of Modi was more enthralling (and fearful) than the man himself. In 2019, Modi will no longer be an abstraction. The whole country has today been exposed to the reality of the Prime Minister—both his positive attributes and his shortcomings. So far Modi’s ratings have been extremely positive and there are indications that the NDA could in fact improve its tally. This is why Nitish Kumar swallowed his pride and acknowledged reality.