Monsoon is set to hit the Nicobar Islands in the next 2-3 days. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of south west monsoon over South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and the Nicobar Islands during the next 2 to 3 days. However, there are still few weeks to go, before monsoon enters the Indian mainland of Kerala.
According to sources in IMD, a cyclonic circulation extending up to 3.1 kilometer above mean sea level, is lying over the South-West Bay of Bengal adjoining the equatorial Indian ocean, off the coast of South Sri lanka. As a result of this, a low pressure area is likely to form by Saturday, which will be further well marked and subsequently become a depression during next 48 hours, around May 16.
The normal date for the arrival of South-West monsoon in Nicobar Islands is May 15, and that in Andaman Islands is May 20. The first pulse of winds is expected to result in before time onset of monsoon at Andaman islands. However, the onset at the Kerala coast will depend upon the second pulse, said the IMD experts.
Skymet, country’s private weather forecaster also shared IMD’s prediction, stating that rain clouds will be over the islands between May 18 and May 20. Thereafter, Southwest Monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala between May 28 and May 30, simultaneously covering some parts of Northeast India.
Skymet further predicted that, monsoon will move faster in the eastern part of the country, as compared to the western parts. Rain clouds are expected to reach Kolkata by June 10, Mumbai by June 12-14 June, and Delhi by July 1.
Advancement of monsoon over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, and the adjoining States will occur by June 25. Monsoon will cover the entire country by 15 July, except west Rajasthan, it predicted.
IMD will however make a formal announcement on the onset date of the monsoon over Kerala on May 15. As per the weather scientists, the ongoing heatwave across central and northern India is a positive indicator for the advancement of monsoon over the mainland.
IMD had earlier forecast above-normal rainfall, this monsoon with a 94 per cent probability of its occurrence between normal to excess.