With temperature being bullish throughout the November-January period, year after year, it is all but certain that Delhi has lost, or is losing, its winters forever. SHAlINI SAKSENA mourns the scenario
There was a time when school-goers would start wearing winter uniforms in October in Delhi. Today, most schools have shifted it to November 15, 2017, that too children protesting about how extremely warm it is to wear a sweater, let alone a blazer. That winters have steadily been receding is evident from the fact that last November, the maximum temperature touched 34°Celsius and the minimum stood at 23°Celsius most days.
This is not the first time that Delhi has felt the heat. Back in 2014, the mercury touched 29°Celsius in the Capital on December 1, 2014, and it was declared the hottest day since 1901. This came as a shocker for the layman but environmentalists and climatologists were not surprised. All along they have been saying that hot days are on the increase and winters on the decline.
On three other occasions — December 9, 2000, December 9, 1994, and December 12, 1968 — the Capital recorded temperatures hovering 29°Celsius. There was snowfall in New York and Europe in November and a recorded temperature of 34°C in Delhi. Due to the Arctic polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warming events, temperatures within the stratosphere warm dramatically over a short time, impacting the southern parts of the Earth.
Experts say that the present weather conditions in the Capital can be the result of global warming and other factors like variations in land use and industrialisation. This includes deforestation, pollution and other factors. Global warming is a phenomenon one can’t ignore. It will continue and the oscillations in climate will become even more common.
Climatologist Prof Murari lal has, for some time, been asserting that variations in climate are only going to increase. However, he tells you that it is difficult to say whether winters are or will disappear from the Capital. “Yes, but one thing is there, winters are becoming milder. Seasons are shortening. But extremes are always possible — the days it will be cold, it will be in extreme,” lal says.
While global warming is one reason, he asserts that urbanisation is a major reason too. “It is the combined influence of the two, which one has more impact is difficult to identify. Both factors are responsible and since extremes are possible, it is difficult to say that winters will completely disappear down the years,” lal says.
He also tells you that cutting down of trees and rampant construction is making Delhi a concrete jungle, leading it to desertification, thanks to the reduced green cover. He predicts that 20 years hence, the present situation will continue to progress. While climate and weather have a different meaning, individually the weather events will be modulated by global warming.
Taking the baseline as 1961-1990, the Capital has seen a rise of 1.4 degree Celsius. However Delhi-NCR has become so vast, there can be variations. He opines that poor air quality adds to the problem. Fog is never seen in isolation, particularly in Delhi-NCR. Smog is coming all the way from Pakistan up to Bhutan and it is very persistent. And this is getting trapped due to thermal inversion. Winter is the time when the Westerlies and North Westerlies move towards India to the North-east. So, while the pollutants coming from there may contribute to about 15-20 per cent of warming, it is a combined effect of several factors, including coal burning and crop residue burning that add to the heat.
But he differs from environmentalists who say that vehicular emissions are a major causative. “local pollution can’t be exclusively blamed for milder winters. But it is a contributor,” Prof lal says, adding that the impact of milder winters in the coming summers is only going to become unbearable. But he is quick to point out that milder winters will not impact the monsoons since there are very many factors that influence it.
The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013, said: “Global warming continues despite a slow-down in surface temperature rise over 1998-2012. Global mean surface temperatures increased by 0.89ºC between 1901 and 2012. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. Almost the entire globe (including India) warmed between 1901 and 2012. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” The report also said many areas on the globe have observed more hot extremes than cold extremes.
Of course, there were reports that the Capital recorded the lowest temperature in seven years, when on December 14, 2017, the maximum was 19° Celsius. Only a couple of weeks earlier, the temperature in the Capital was 27.7 degree Celsius (maximum), the warmest day in the month in the last eight years.
What the public has forgotten that back in January, 2006, the denizens shivered when the temperatures dropped to 0.2°Celsius (minimum), the coldest day in 70 years. While some may argue that there have been days when the temperatures dipped low making Delhiites shiver, environmentalists like BS Vohra paint a dismal picture.
“It is only mid-January and some people have already shed winter wear. It looks like winter is over. There is only a slight chill factor early morning and late evenings and night, otherwise, days are warm. There are people who have felt the need to use their car air-conditioners, that’s how warm it is getting. This is sad and unfortunate. However, we have no one to blame but ourselves,” Vohra says.
He tells you that it is all due to pollution. Just step out of Delhi and you will feel the chill. This change — almost no winters — is a phenomenon that has gradually grown in the last 10-15 years. “There was a time when weather in Punjab, Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh affected Delhi, adding to the chill. No longer true. The constant heat being released by vehicles is one culprit. The rise in the number of vehicles is the other. Blaming construction work for air pollution are just excuses. We see people burn waste despite high PM 2.5. There is no check on this. There is no check on increased vehicles,” Vohra stresses.
If the scenario is not tackled, there will be a time when winters will disappear from Delhi with only sporadic chill days few and far between. “The way pollution is rising, there is no future for the good old winters,” Vohra says.
“The other cities have no such vehicular problem. There is less number of cars. The only time when there is traffic is morning and evening. The rest of the day, driving in any small city is a breeze. less cars means less heat emission,” Vohra tells you.
Environmentalists lament that the possible solution has no way to be implemented as the Government gets as much as 28 per cent GST from the sale of cars. This does not include the cess which is 15 per cent for smaller cars and 20 per cent for luxury cars.
Experts say that there is need to understand the difference in the weather and climate.
“The solution lies in keeping a check on the sale of cars. Restrict it to one per family. For commuting, people should use public transport like the Metro or take a cab and this should be made compulsory,” Vohra says.
The air quality life Index, created by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, presented the effect of particulate matter on lifespan around the world. In India, it means that the average life expectancy could increase by a full year if it met its own PM2.5 standard of 40 µg/m3 and four years if the Government complied with WHO standards of 10 µg/m3. Delhi, labeled as one of the most polluted places in the world, could live as much as nine years longer if WHO standards are met and six years longer if national standards are met.
Small changes are taking place. Tailors in the Capital say that there is nobody now wants to get coats/jackets made. “There was a time when I used to employ a karigar to just tailor coats and jackets. This year (2017), I have not had even one person come to get a jacket stitched,” Muhammad Mufstafa, a tailor in Delhi’s Saket area, tells you.
When it comes to health, the changes have been more drastic. Doctors say that each year, there is a rise in the number of people who come to them with respiratory problems.
“From last few years Delhi has been called as a gas chamber. Air pollution has taken a heavy toll on our health. The rising menace of pollution resulted in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), asthma, skin ailments, heart attacks or even cancer,” Dr Arunesh Kumar Senior Consultant & Head Pulmonology, Paras Hospitals, Gurugram, says.
According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration the Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 0.99° Celsius warmer than the mid-20th century mean. This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures.
The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.1° Celsius since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most warming has occurred in the past 35 years, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year — from January through September, with the exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective months. October, November, and December of 2016 were the second warmest of those months on record — in all three cases, behind records set in 2015. This means if the globe warms ups, the winters do too.
But while mild winters can be attributed to global warming, it doesn’t give the complete picture.
Arun Krishnamurthy of the Environmentalist Foundation of India tells you that the usual Delhi winters are a thing of the past. “Climate change and urban pollution — that increase the heat levels, reduced rains — are a major contributor. Erratic weather conditions are a common phenomenon globally and Delhi is no exception,” Krishnamurthy says and warms Delhiites to get used to hotter extended summers and reduced rains in the coming years.
While El Niño, la Niña and global warming do have an impact in addition to the dynamic changes, the acute and shallow cold weather is not abnormal. But it is to be noted that the change is more erratic than what is predicted.
But Krishnamurthy, like Vohra, is quick to point out that winters as a season is not likely to disappear. “What we will have is acute winters one year and shallow or warmer winters the next,” Krishnamurthy says.
Up to 1960, the effect of global warming was restricted to a rise in maximum temperature. After 1960, there was an increase in the minimum temperature as well. In India, we saw this effect starting from the 1990s. This means that qualitatively, we should be prepared for increased temperatures in the coming years.
land surface is getting hotter. We see a reduction in the number of cool days and an increased frequency of warm days. In India, the coming years and decades will bring in enhanced intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability due to climate change (most models used for IPCC 2013-14 suggest this). Therefore, the weather and climate during seasons and months over India would be highly variable and Delhi too will face this change, in fact, environmentalists say that it is already seeing the effects.
‘Can’t say it is a permanent change’
This year has been relatively warm in winters in Delhi, WhyIJ
It has been only slightly milder. Since November 1, 2017, Delhi is +1.1°C and since December 1, 2017, around 0.9°C above normal. The main reason this year is that the jet stream has remained fairly far north limiting the southern push of cooler air. There have been significant cold shots into northeast Asia and North America as well as parts of Europe.
Can global warming really make such a drastic differenceIJ
It is hard to attribute something like climate change to everyday weather patterns, especially with la Nina setting in during late fall/early winter. One of the main drivers this year is likely the la Nina weather pattern taking shape globally.
Are there any other factors contributing to the changing weather in the CapitalIJ
la Nina is the big driver of the global pattern, but there are others too. The water around India continues to run milder than normal but have cooled some since last year.
Given the present scenario, do we summarize that winters are most likely to disappearIJ
Hard to say but I would say no. Weather patterns tend to be cyclical and we will likely see ‘winter’ return. In fact, this winter is actually over 0.5 degrees C cooler than last winter to this same point.
Usually, Delhi weather is affected by States like Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh. These States still experience severe winters. What has changed to make Delhi warmIJ
This is because Delhi is in a valley haze and air pollution tends to get trapped due to air stagnation. It is very common event for cities in valleys. All these air pollutants and haze act as a blanket to keep heat from radiating into space at night and also limit solar radiation from reaching the ground by day. The same pollutants that have lead to poor air quality around the city earlier this winter are also a key factor in keep temperatures on the mild side of normal.
How alarmed should we beIJ
I would not be so alarmed by seasonal weather patterns but would be more alarmed by recurring air quality problems in Delhi that seem to be becoming a more regular occurrence during the winter months.
What does no winters mean — in terms seasonsIJ
There will always be winters of some sort just due to changing sun angles because of the Earth's tilt and orbit around the sun, but urban growth and air pollution may mean they are less severe at times.
Over the years, what has been the rise in Capital's temperaturesIJ
The changes have been seasonal and this winter is actually slightly cooler than last winter and the winter of 2015-16 overall to this point. Meanwhile, the winter of 2014-15 was actually cooler than normal to this point so this winter is much milder than that winter. I was unable to find any numbers showing the changes in temperatures over the years or decades.
Would you agree that this is a permanent phase caused due to Western DisturbanceIJ
No. Weather and climate tend to be cyclical so would not say it is a permanent change. So many variables are in play when it comes to weather and climate that I cannot boldly predict this is a permanent change.