Twenty six Opposition parties have come together to challenge the NDA, which is an alliance of thirty four parties, in the next general elections in 2024. The opposition alliance is bereft of an acceptable narrative and an acceptable alternative leader. Moreover, the leaders of all the twenty six parties constituting the opposition alliance are tainted beyond redemption. A strong and determined opposition is an important prerequisite for the successful functioning of democracy. Therefore, the opposition unity must be welcomed, but this is a ramshackle coalition and there is no reason to celebrate this unity.
The opposition unity came in 1977 in the backdrop of the tyranny of Emergency under the aegis of Jai Prakash Movement. There is no such background this time. The opposition unity in 1989 was achieved in the scandalous background of Bofors under the leadership of Vishwanath Pratap Singh who was successful in establishing himself as cleaner than Mr. Clean ( Rajiv Gandhi). The NDA succeeded under the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee because the ruling coalition under Devegowda and Gujral had been thoroughly discredited. In 2014, a series of scandals came to light in the ten years rule of UPA under Man Mohan Singh and Anna Hazare and NDA took off the sheen of UPA 2 completely. And the biggest factor was the charismatic leadership of Modiji who had shown his mettle in Gujrat and fired the imagination of the rightist forces all over the country. The victory of NDA under Modiji was an expected outcome in 2014.
The present opposition unity has none of the attributes of the past. There is no natural and acceptable leader in the opposition. There are many aspirants of Prime Ministership in the opposition but none of them is popular and powerful enough to emerge as a clear first in the opposition camp, leaving apart the proposition of defeating NDA led by Modiji. On the other hand, the opposition has to face a dynamic leader Modiji whose popularity at home and abroad is simply astounding. The country has survived corona virus and successfully taken on China. The economy is in a good shape and diplomacy has done wonders that were unthinkable a few years ago. India is moving fast on the road to become the manufacturing hub of the world. Therefore, the opposition is not in a position to take on Modiji.
Does it mean that the opposition has no hope in 2024? It will be premature to say so because things can change in politics for good or bad in a very short time. A war with China is looming large on the horizon and China may impose a war on India to destabilize the leadership of Modiji. However, it is not sure of its victory. India may defeat China and in that case, NDA would gain a landslide victory. Pakistan is no match for India and it won't commit any big act of terror giving India an excuse to go for a surgical strike against it and win elections hands down.
The opposition can win elections in 2024 only if Modiji falters in the way and fails to keep its flock together. The core voters of Modiji have got less than what they expected. He has faltered on several occasions while handling domestic issues. A great leader doesn't have the privilege of faltering. Right now, it appears that there is no challenge to him. The opposition is defunct and several zeroes coming together do not make a number in the absence of a prime number.
The writer is a noted academician and political commentator. Views expressed in the article are personal.