The political and strategic balance of power ensuring global peace and stability depends upon the willingness of powerful nations to give honourable space to each other. History is full of examples when violation of such space has led to catastrophic war. So, every powerful nation must realise how far it could push its adversary and this is the guiding principle of diplomacy. The first and second world war were the result of this failure of understanding that threw the world into the holocaust of great wars exploding the myth that war was a sort of medieval tournament. Modern age is a different age because of nuclear weapons and highly advanced logistics. Robert Oppenheimer, the director of the Manhattan Project, had exclaimed after the first nuclear bomb was successfully tested that the world would never be the same again and he was not far from truth. Nuclear weapons are a great deterrent and the third world war wouldn't take place. At the same time, it requires exemplary political and diplomatic deftness not to push any great power to act with a deadly vengeance, even up to the extent of a full-fledged nuclear war.
The Russia Ukraine conflict is the result of this basic lack of understanding on the part of US led NATO. Gone are the days of Mikhail Gorbachev who presided over the liquidation of the USSR much to the appreciation and pleasure of the West. This is Putin and he is a different stuff. He won't allow America to further eat into the Russian hegemony in its vicinity. It was America which fueled the ambition of Ukraine to join NATO and see what Ukraine has done to itself. Ukraine is the theatre of American war against Russia. This conflict has to end sooner or later but Ukraine would gain nothing except the blazing trail of destruction and devastation.
There are similar situations elsewhere. If America pushes China to a full-fledged war against Taiwan, one can imagine the mutilated picture of the post war Taiwan. A little amount of true diplomacy making a balance between the US and Chinese interests would save Taiwan and the world from the miseries and allied consequences of this possible war.
Another zone of the likely conflict is the India China border where both nations are in a state of standoff for the last almost three years. There have been small skirmishes and both the nations are holding their ground. Since the offensive push is coming from China, its cost is much higher than that of India and it would, too, find it difficult to sustain it for a long time. But Xi Jinping is stubborn and trying to push India harder and harder. Gone are the days when China kept pushing its border with India silently and there was always an uneasy calm. Now, India has decided to take on China. This has taken China by surprise. It is a huge economy and the long standoff has put a great cost upon India and this is perhaps its strategy. But, in no case, it can take the standoff to its advantage. The entire scenario is the result of this illogical Chinese push and its reluctance to come to terms with the new India. Any conventional war between the two countries would be indecisive and this would dent the Chinese reputation of being an upcoming global hegemon. This would weaken both China and India, much to the pleasure of America.
Another volatile frontier is the India Pakistan border. Pakistan was created to give a foothold to the West in the strategically important north western region of the erstwhile India. Pakistan constantly fought with India militarily as well as through cross border terrorism which was an additional baggage on the back of India while marching ahead on the path of development. Pakistan fought and continues to fight with India which is a proxy war of the West against India. Later on China joined this bandwagon. India sustained this powerful push because of its healthy democracy and dynamic political leadership over the years. But what happened to Pakistan. It couldn't bear the burden of this unnatural animosity and now it is on the brink of economic bankruptcy and political breakdown.
The big powers should respect each other's political, economic and strategic interests and give everyone room for some maneuvering and only then there would be a comparatively peaceful world.
The writer is a noted academician and political commentator. Views Expressed are personal.